In a new report, data‑analysis firm Sea‑Intelligence noted that US container imports remain under pressure, continuing the negative trend that began after the recent US tariff policies were introduced.
Figures from the US Census Bureau illustrate that North America’s inbound volumes have shown year‑on‑year contraction. December 2025 imports fell 6.4% compared to 2024 to 1.9M TEU after a 5.7% drop in November 2025.
For the first four weeks of 2026, Port of Los Angeles data further shows imports down another 2.2% year-on-year.
The figures prompted questions about whether this pattern signals a reduction in domestic inventories.
As the data for November 2025 onward is not yet available, it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions regarding the current status of US inventories. But the latest monthly data on inventories, covering October 2025, offers a more detailed view for the analysis period.
Sea-Intelligence writes that over the past year, the inventory‑to‑sales ratio across all categories has reduced. The report shows that the overall ratio was around 1.35 towards the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, a breakdown of the past eight years shows differing movements among manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers.
Manufacturers have seen a slower downward shift, and retailers have remained largely unchanged. While this trajectory might show that inventory levels are declining, the firm argues that it is not.
The other piece of the puzzle is the sales growth
Though sales growth has eased, it has not slowed to the same extent as inventory growth. Sales remain on an upward path, particularly for wholesalers.
Monthly year‑on‑year comparisons for 2025 demonstrate that sales are increasing at a faster pace than inventories, resulting in a lower inventory‑to‑sales ratio.
"It is therefore clear from the data that sales growth in the US remains solid, at least up to the newest October data, and that the growth is larger than the inventory growth," concludes the report.
However, the firm raises a question about the disconnect between shrinking container volumes and the simultaneous increases in both inventories and sales.
Sea-Intelligence offers several explanations for the covered period. These include shifts in transport modes or changes in how companies record ownership of goods, which could elevate inventory measurements without corresponding container activity.
