by Lloyd's List
2 May 2025 (Lloyd's List) - CONTAINER trade growth for 2025 could fall into negative territory if the Sino-US trade war drags on for more than a quarter, as Beijing signals willingness to talk.
In its latest market report, Clarksons pointed out that if the current high tariffs continue for around three more months before the two countries reach some kind of easing agreement, then the main flows of this vital transpacific trade will slide 10% over the full year.
The ensuing ripple effect, including a slowdown in global economic activity, “would see effectively zero growth in container trade this year”, the brokerage contended.
“A more protracted trade war with escalation and retaliation could easily see a material contraction in full-year container trade,” Clarksons said.
For reference, it cited the 10% collapse in box trade volumes during the 2009 global financial crisis, and the 2% drop in 2020 when the Covid pandemic first hit.
Carriers have already responded to the sharp falls in Chinese container exports into the US, which accounts for about half of transpacific eastbound volumes and 6% of the global total, by blanking significant capacity.
Linerlytica estimates Asia-North America capacity was pruned to around 400,000 teu in week 19 (May 5-May 11), down from over 500,000 teu between late March to early April before the Trump administration announced its reciprocal tariffs.
While the reduction partly reflects the upcoming Labour Day Golden Week holiday, with capacity expected to rebound the week after, it still falls short of the 2021-2024 average for the same period.
Early signs of a dip in boxship visits to the US are already evident in data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California.
The number of containerships with calculated time of arrival at the top two US ports, Los Angeles and Long Beach, stood at 39 on May 1, or an average of 41.6 over the past two weeks, down from 48.7 in April, 49.4 in March, 47.4 in February and 50.7 in January.
Ship CTAs are seen as a leading indicator of vessel tally expected over the coming one to two weeks.
Some forecasts suggest the first wave of goods shortages will hit the US this month, increasing pressure to strike a deal with China, which is also grappling with factory shutdowns and job losses.
China’s Commerce Ministry spokesperson today hinted the sides could be ready to formally re-engage, saying the US had recently conveyed messages through various channels many times in the hope of talking.
“China is evaluating this,” the spokesperson said, while still emphasising that Washington needed to first halt its unilateral tariff actions as a precondition.
Clarksons indicated that even if tariffs just endure another quarter and Red Sea rerouting persists over the whole of 2025, tonne-mile demand could still slip slightly next year.
“With 6% fleet growth projected, more challenging sector fundamentals look likely this year.”
