by Lloyd's List
8 May 2025 (Lloyd's List) - THE US-Houthi ceasefire is not expected to usher in an immediate normalisation of Red Sea traffic as the security risk remains largely unchanged, shipping and security analysts said in the wake of Tuesday’s announcement.
BIMCO chief safety and security officer Jacob Larsen said the shipowner group was still reviewing the “various aspects” of the ceasefire deal but advised members to remain cautious.
“As a matter of precaution, shipowners are advised to maintain their current risk management measures until further notice,” Larsen told Lloyd’s List on Wednesday.
Analysts weighing in on the development said the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in January and subsequent announcement from the Houthis that they would lift their “ban” on most ships did not encourage a mass resumption of commercial traffic through the Red Sea.
While no commercial ships have reported being attacked since December, the industry remains wary of returning to the Red Sea. Some major owners and operators that have diverted away from the Red Sea have started testing the waters in recent months, but traffic levels are far from their pre-crisis levels.
EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly said it would take “a while” before the Red Sea situation normalised.
“The Houthis announced a ceasefire earlier this year and reverted pretty quick,” Kelly told Lloyd’s List.
“During that time, trade wasn’t quick to return to the Red Sea.”
Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen said: “It should also be kept in mind that at the beginning of 2025, the Houthis initiated a ceasefire with the argument that as long as there was a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, they would stop shooting at ships. When the ceasefire was broken, the Houthis also resumed action.
“Given the current situation there is not a high probability that large merchant vessels will be in a rush to go back through the Red Sea.”
The Houthis began their campaign against commercial shipping in late 2023 with attacks aimed at vessels they perceived as Israeli-linked. The Yemeni faction soon expanded its targets to include US- and UK-linked ships as the two nations began striking Houthi targets in Yemen.
US President Donald Trump surprised the world on Wednesday when he announced the truce, which came in the midst of an intensive American and Israeli bombing of Houthi targets. Despite some reports that the Houthis denied an agreement was reached, statement from Omani mediators later confirmed by the Yemeni faction confirmed the sides indeed agreed to stop attacking each other.
“Neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping,” foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said on social media platform X.
However, statements from the Houthis suggest freedom of navigation is far from ensured.
The Humanitarian Operations Co-ordination Center, through which the Houthis communicate with merchant shipping, said in response to an enquiry from Lloyd’s List that Israeli ships will continue to be “banned” despite the US-Houthi ceasefire.
“Currently, the vessels that remain prohibited from transiting the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea are those that are 100% owned by Israeli individuals or entities, as well as vessels sailing under the flag of the usurping Israeli entity,” the HOCC said.
The “ban” essentially echoes the militants’ targeting profile from the early days of the Red Sea crisis in late 2023, when their attacks on ships perceived to be Israeli-owned — while often having no links to Israel — spurred a mass exodus from the Red Sea.
With additional reporting by Bridget Diakun
