by Lloyd's List
11 September 2024 (Lloyd's List) - CHINA-AFFILIATED vessels are steadily picking up more Red Sea voyages making these shipowners an outlier even within the group that continues to pass through the Bab el Mandeb.
Ships associated with China, either through flag or ownership, made 257 voyages via the international shipping route that borders Yemen in August, up from 226 in July.
This is the second consecutive monthly increase in China-affiliated Bab el Mandeb transits, effectively ending a three-month streak of consistent traffic levels.
“I would link this to the Chinese shipping industry’s confidence that its transits won’t be molested or targeted by the Houthis,” said Risk Intelligence MENA analyst Kais Makhlouf.
“This had already been signalled in the past by the Houthis, although there was some doubt as to how certain one could be as to Houthis’ assurances.”
China-affiliated vessels do not directly fall under the Houthi’s self-proclaimed target profile, but the group has previously misidentified targets and hit China-owned ships.
Growing certainty in vessel safety combined with the commercial incentive of a shorter and cheaper route has led to the expansion of Red Sea express services first established in the early days of the conflict to profit on the deteriorating security situation.
China-affiliated containership transits through the Bab el Mandeb totalled 72 in August. The monthly average for containership passings was 46 between March and June of this year.
Smaller tonnage, under 5,000 teu, accounts for most of the voyages and the average containership size in August is nearly 75% less than the value recorded last year.
While data indicates Chinese container lines are looking to grow their newer services, it was bulk carriers that were the driving force behind the month-on-month increase in transits, recording 21% growth.
China recorded strong dry bulk imports in 2023 and while demand is forecasted to maintain growth in the short term, albeit at lower levels than the pre-pandemic trend, it is evolving risk assessments that is a key factor in fluctuating passing volumes.
BRS Shipbrokers head of dry bulk research Wilson Wirawan told Lloyd’s List: “Our view regarding Red Sea transits, at the end of the day, is boiled down to a straightforward case of risk appetite (or lack of it) levels.”
Who still sails the Red Sea via the Bab el Mandeb?
Aside from China-affiliated vessels, Russia-linked ships are perceived to be safer from Houthi’s campaign of aggression.
There has been a negligible change in the monthly number of Russia-affiliated vessels sailing through the Red Sea over the past six months.
Russia-associated ships only represent a small number of the total ships passing through the Bab el Mandeb.
Ships linked to China, Greece, the UAE and Türkiye are the most active users of the shipping route.
Aside from China, there has been no consistent growth in ship transits among this group.
Greece- and UAE-affiliated vessels have been completing increasingly fewer voyages over the past several months.
Greece-owned vessels have been popular targets of Houthi attacks of late.
The Houthis have said they will target vessels that continue to call in Israel as well as any vessel owned by a shipowner that engages in Israeli trade.
Greece-affiliated vessels accounted for approximately 20% all foreign arrivals to Israel in August, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
August marked the first meaningful increase in traffic through the Bab el Mandeb international shipping route off Yemen’s coast since the Houthis began targeting merchant vessels in November.
Passing levels still remain nearly 60% lower than normal volumes.
