by Lloyd's List
8 April 2025 (Lloyd's List) - TRANSITS of cargo-carrying vessels through Red Sea chokepoints jumped last month after hitting record lows in February, despite analysts warning the risks are unchanged.
A total of 1,017 passings, amounting to 68.9m dwt, were recorded through the Bab el Mandeb in March, up from 864, equalling 57.1m dwt, the previous month, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
The last time traffic volumes hit this level was March 2024.
March 2025 was a similarly positive month for the Suez Canal with 925 transits, representing about 69.3m dwt. This is up from 715 passings in February and is the highest number since August.
A combination of market factors and shifting risk appetite is likely behind the positive figures.
The Houthis’ partial lifting of Red Sea restrictions on January 19, following the implementation of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, kick-started a moderate return to the Red Sea.
Vessels either resumed transits through the Bab el Mandeb or started passing through the strait, having no history of doing so during the period of heightened tension and uncertainty.
Since January 20, 297 distinct vessels fit this definition, representing 20% of the vessels that passed through the Bab el Mandeb during this period.
The collapse of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire on March 18 has not deterred owners and operators that have recently started or restarted Red Sea transits and there continue to be examples of ships returning to the area.
Analysts warn the region remains tense, and transits are arguably becoming riskier due to the air strikes carried out by the US on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
Control Risks associate analyst Arran Kennedy said: “We’re not yet at the point where the Houthis feel existentially threatened and lash out at sea by trying to shut the strait down with mines and indiscriminate attacks on ships, but further US strikes that target areas and properties tied to senior Houthi figures are inching towards that.”
The Joint Maritime Information Center has further advised that ships operating in the area are at risk of becoming collateral damage in retaliatory attacks from Houthi forces against US navy assets.
There is no indication that US strikes will end in the coming weeks.
“The Iran-backed Houthi terrorists have been decimated by the relentless strikes over the past two weeks,” US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social Post on March 31. “Our attacks will continue until they are no longer a threat to freedom of navigation.”
Although transits through the Suez Canal and Bab el Mandeb increased in March, the traffic levels are within “new normal” range, and more data is needed to understand if the activity in March is an outlier or part of a new trend.
