by Lloyd's List

20 December 2024 (Lloyd's List) - THE number of containership transits through the Bab el Mandeb Strait hit a year-to-date high in November.

The monthly total stood at 220, up 12.2% from October, which was the previous 2024 peak, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. By contrast, the average monthly passings for the first 11 months of the year were 174.4.

However, this change should not be interpreted as a sign that global carriers have started to return en masse to the Red Sea route — the vast majority of larger vessels continued to skirt the Cape of Good Hope, amid persistent attacks against merchant shipping by Houthi rebels.

Vessel-tracking data shows that not a single ship in the 15,000-17,999 teu range passed through the Mandeb Strait last month, while only three transits were recorded in the 14,999-10,000 teu range. These were CMA CGM vessels, which have kept using the Red Sea route with Aspides escorts.

In the 5,000-9,999 teu class, transits numbered 22 versus 16 in October.

The considerable increase in traffic was almost entirely driven by smaller tonnage below 5,000 teu, a segment where transits reached a 19-month high of 193 in November, up over 10% month-on-month and nearly 28% above this year’s average.

This indicates that mainstream liners are still avoiding the Red Sea with their larger vessels deployed on Asia-Europe routes, despite rising expectations of a return triggered by a seemingly imminent Gaza ceasefire deal.

Meanwhile, more small ships entering the Red Sea has coincided with a continuing trend of some opportunistic carriers quickly filling the gap left by bigger competitors exiting the route.

For example, among November those transiting were several ships operated by China’s CU Lines. The company has significantly increased its Red Sea exposure this year through new services co-operated with partners.

“As the top carriers of this world to a large extent avoid the area, opportunities arise for carriers that assess the risk differently,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sands.

“Still, many of them may not offer this option to all shippers — as anecdotal evidence speaks of preference given to exporters flying the same flag as the ‘opportunistic’ carriers.”

Meanwhile, the list also featured some newcomers and returners.

For example, data shows the Panama-flagged 1,675 teu Hua Xiang 936 (IMO: 9159153) traded between Russian, Turkish and Egyptian Mediterranean ports from January to May this year. But after staying at Alexandria anchorage for months, it suddenly sailed to China and then departed Shanghai in late October, transiting the Suez Canal in November to arrive at Russia’s Novorossiysk on the 29th.

Another ship, the China-flagged 1,908 teu Zhong Gu Bo Hai (IMO: 9842346), passed through the Mandeb Strait on November 1 before proceeding to Jeddah, having shuttled between UAE, Pakistan and Oman earlier this year.

Including the operators of these vessels, industry players are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East and Red Sea, which has major implications for the entire container shipping market.

According to Linerlytica data, the Red Sea rerouting has absorbed about 7% of global containership capacity, bolstering freight and charter rates over the past 10 months.

Signs that Iran and some of its key proxies have been severely weakened in recent months, including the coup in Syria and the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal, have fuelled concerns the Tehran-backed Houthi militias could prematurely end their harassment of shipping in the Red Sea.

The latest media reports indicate a Hamas-Israel truce is also in the final stages, with Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, recently saying an agreement is “closer than ever.”

In its 2025 outlook report, Xeneta divides scenarios into no return of boxships to the Red Sea, partial return, and full return. This results in a range of anywhere from 3% growth to an 11% contraction for next year’s teu-mile demand.

“A large-scale return to the Red Sea seems inconceivable at present, but a partial return may be possible at some point in 2025,” said Xeneta senior analyst Emily Stausbøll.

BIMCO assumed ships will continue to sail around the Cape of Good Hope throughout 2025 and conditions could allow a return to normal routings in 2026.

However, should ships already be able to return to normal routings in 2025, it forecast vessel demand to fall by 5-6% in 2025 and then grow by 3.5-4.5% in 2026.