by Lloyd's List

30 September 2024 (Lloyd's List) - SAUDI Red Sea ports will remain the worst affected by sustained carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, accounting for the majority of lost calls under carrier contingency plans for 2025.

Earlier this month, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, as part of their new Gemini Cooperation, the Premier Alliance — comprising Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming — and Mediterranean Shipping Company, acting as a standalone carrier from next year, all announced dual network offerings on the east-west trades for 2025 dependent on Red Sea developments.

MSC will also have a slot exchange co-operation with the new Premier Alliance. The twofold options included port service rotations for both the Cape of Good and Suez routings, as the liner industry’s alliance revamp starts to take shape. 

Respective network changes focus predominately — as one would expect — on Asia-Europe. However, carriers have also announced alternate routings on other trades that would have made use of the Suez.

MSC, for example, has revealed twin options on Asia-North America east coast services that keeps the same port rotation, but either loops globally round the Cape or the Suez via the Panama Canal.

The move by MSC, Gemini and the Premier Alliance to present two routing options to the market will have helped allay shipper uncertainty, but for ports that find themselves at the centre of network jostling, fortunes hinge on what route carriers will take.

Since Houthi attacks shifted nearly all east-west tonnage around Africa — as Lloyd’s List has reportedly previously — it has been the Saudi ports, predominately Jeddah and King Abdullah, that have borne the brunt, witnessing sharp declines in port calls and, with it, volumes throughout 2024.

The new carrier networks show that once again the pair stand to lose heavily if the situation in the Red Sea remains.

The combined service schedules of MSC, Gemini and the Premier Alliance disclose that Jeddah will lose as many as eight direct mainline calls if carriers continue round the Cape. This would include as many as five from the Premier Alliance alone, as part of its Asia-Europe offering. 

Meanwhile, King Abdullah will miss out on five call of its own. 

King Abdullah would normally feature prominently on MSC’s Asia-Mediterranean offering via Suez. MSC manages terminal operations at King Abdullah through its group affiliate Terminal Investment Limited on behalf of state-owned Saudi group Ports Development Co, using the port as its principal transhipment hub in the Red Sea before the advent of Houthi attacks.

But with King Abdullah absent from either Gemini’s or the Premier Alliance’s east-west networks for 2025, if Red Sea rerouting continues, the port will not have any mainline alliance calls to its name.

In the case of Jeddah, while it too would not have mainline calls as such, the two Gemini carriers will look to serve the Red Sea region via the Saudi hub through three additional loops: Jeddah 1, Jeddah 2 and Jeddah 3, providing connections with ports north of the Suez.

Although not to the same extent as the Saudi majors, other ports stand to lose business if carriers fail to return to their traditional Red Sea routing.

In the east Mediterranean, the Greek port of Piraeus and the Egyptian duo of Damietta and Port Said will also see two port calls dropped apiece as a consequence of continuing round the Cape — and all at the hands of Premier Alliance scheduling.

The Omani port of Salalah — which, like its Saudi neighbours, has witnessed a sharp drop in traffic since carrier diversions due to a reliance on Red Sea transhipment cargoes — will also lose two calls both from Gemini. This would stem from alternate services on Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s Middle East/India-Europe (ME2) and transpacific (TP16) offerings avoiding the Suez route.

Finally, Abu Dhabi would also be hit with a deficit of two mainline calls if tonnage continues to be diverted south round Africa.

There is though ports that stand to gain in the scenario that carriers begin new alliance schedules avoiding the Red Sea.

Colombo and Morocco’s Tanger Med have already seen a surge in business off the back of the onset of Houthi attacks, gaining numerous ad hoc calls and services from lines’ efforts to reposition Red Sea transhipment either side of the Suez.

Unsurprisingly, the pair are once again chief benefactors from revised Cape routings. Colombo notches up an additional three calls and Tanger Med a further two from Gemini’s east-west offering via the Cape that are both absent from its Red Sea alternatives.  

While there are ports that stand to win and lose from the dual offerings put forward by carriers, the respective networks also reveal efforts to keep disruption or service changes to a minimum for shippers.

MSC, for example, will keep the entirety of its Asia-northern Europe port rotation the same in either a Red Sea or Cape of Good Hope scenario.

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s dual proposition, under Gemini, has also taken the approach of offering fewer direct mainline port calls, ensuring regional coverage via a significant series of shuttle services.

However, there could still be further network changes on the horizon for customers to ponder. 

At the time of writing, the Ocean Alliance, containing CMA CGM, Cosco and Evergreen, had still to announce amended service timetables for next year in the event of a Red Sea return, which could prompt yet further port rationalisation.