by Lloyd's List

21 February 2025 (Lloyd's List) - THE OWNERSHIP affiliation of the fleet opting to sail through the Bab el Mandeb has not changed fundamentally since the Houthis announced a partial stop to their attacks, underscoring the industry’s hesitancy to return to Red Sea transits.

An analysis of Bab el Mandeb transits, looking at flag, beneficial owner, registered owner, commercial operator and technical manager, reveals that China remains the top user of the beleaguered shipping lane.

In the four weeks since the implementation of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, China-affiliated vessels made 257 voyages through the Bab el Mandeb, accounting for 28.6% of all passings.

Confidence in the safety of China-owned ships encouraged shipowners to expand services that make use of the chokepoint.

That many other countries that frequented the Red Sea have pulled back on their activities has meant that China’s share of traffic in the region has grown.

Between September 2023 and November 2023, before shipping diverted from the Bab el Mandeb en masse, China-affiliated ships accounted for 14.1% of total passings.

Other countries that are highly represented are the UAE, Greece, Singapore and Türkiye.

Although Greek ships are, and have been, some of the most active users of the Red Sea route, overall the number of ships transiting is a fraction of what it once was in the period prior to the Houthis’ campaign of aggression against merchant shipping.

The Greek fleet previously represented about 20% of transits, and it now accounts for approximately 11%.

The Houthis’ announcement that they will no longer target US- and UK-owned, managed and flagged ships, has neither led to a rebound in traffic nor has it led to a return of shipowners and operators from certain countries.

In the four weeks after the ceasefire 37 countries have been represented in the beneficial ownership of transiting vessels. This is compared to 38 in the four-week period preceding the ceasefire and 64 recorded in October 2023.

About 60% of traffic has rerouted from the Bab el Mandeb to the Cape of Good Hope since the situation worsened in December 2023. The widespread nature of the exodus means most countries have seen a reduced footprint in the Red Sea.

The data confirms there has been no significant resumption in Red Sea transits, but there are a small number — under 100 — that have either returned to the Bab el Mandeb since January 19 or which are sailing through having no history of using the strait during the time of heightened tensions and uncertainty.

Many of these ships are linked to Greece, China and the UAE, all of which have actively sailed the beleaguered shipping lane throughout the crisis.