IT HAS now been seven months since the Hormuz crisis began. Ships are still sporadically being attacked in the strait, Brent crude is back over $100 per barrel, and bunker prices are yet again on the ascent.
Bunker prices fell during the US-Iran peace MoU period in late spring and early summer but have since rebounded to early April levels.
According to Ship & Bunker data, the average price of very low sulphur fuel oil at the world’s top 20 bunkering hubs was $882 per tonne on Monday, up 30% from the recent low in early July and up 69% year on year (y/y).
The price of high sulphur fuel oil at the top 20 hubs averaged $749.50 per tonne on Monday, up 42% versus early July and up 64% y/y.
Constrained flows through Hormuz continue to impact suppliers in Asia more so than in the Atlantic basin, which is reflected in regional bunker prices. The price disparity between regions is multiples higher than it was pre-crisis.
According to Ship and Bunker data, the price of VLSFO in Singapore, at $874 per tonne, is 25% higher than in Rotterdam. VLSFO in Fujairah, at $976 per tonne, is 40% more expensive than in Rotterdam.
HSFO in Singapore, at $751 per tonne, is 35% more expensive than in Houston. HSFO in Fujairah, at $708 per tonne, is 27% more expensive than in Houston.
Hormuz crisis rewidened VLSFO-HSFO spread
The higher the discount of HSFO to VLSFO, the greater the savings for ships with exhaust gas scrubbers, which are allowed to burn cheaper HSFO under IMO 2020 rules.
According to Ship & Bunker data, the scrubber spread was extremely low in the months prior to the Hormuz crisis, averaging just $68 per tonne at the top 20 hubs in October 2025-February 2026.
The Hormuz crisis has rewidened the spread. It hit a high of $193.50 per tonne on August 5, the largest average HSFO discount to VLSFO since February 2023, during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Over the seven months of the Hormuz crisis, the average VLSFO-HSFO spread at the top 20 hubs has been double its level in the same period the year before.
More recently, the spread has pulled back as the price of HSFO has risen faster than VLSFO. As of Monday, the HSFO discount was down to $132.50 per tonne, albeit still double its level one year ago.
More newbuildings, more scrubbers
Scrubbers have paid off for shipowners since the IMO 2020 regulation came into effect, and installations continue to mount, driven by newbuildings.
According to data from Clarksons Research, 67% of the 931 very large crude carriers in service as of September 1 had scrubbers. There were 307 VLCCs on order, and 93% were due for scrubber installations.
Of the 725 in-service suezmaxes, 41% had scrubbers; of the 211 suezmaxes on order, 73% will have them installed.
In dry bulk, 58% of the 2,082 on-the-water capesizes had scrubbers; 73% of the 344 capesizes on order will be equipped with them.
Scrubber penetration is already high for larger containerships, but unlike tankers and dry bulk, the share will fall as the next wave of newbuildings delivers.
Of 235 boxships in service with capacity of 17,000 teu or more, 80% have scrubbers. There were 243 ships in this category on order — for a whopping orderbook-to-fleet ratio in this subsegment of 103% — but only six of them, or 2%, will have scrubbers installed, according to Clarksons data.
In the 12,000- to 16,999-teu segment, 64% of in-service ships had scrubbers as of September 1, compared to 43% of newbuilding orders.
In the 8,000-11,999 teu segment, 55% of on-the-water ships had scrubbers versus 42% of newbuildings.
Fuel costs and commercial operations
A higher VLSFO-HSFO spread increases the time-charter equivalent rate for bulk commodity vessels with scrubbers on spot voyages, as TCE is calculated net of fuel costs and scrubbers reduce that cost.
According to Clarksons Securities, the TCE for a non-eco VLCC with a scrubber was $9,200 per higher than for a non-scrubber-equipped VLCC as of Tuesday. The scrubber TCE premium for both non-eco medium-range product tankers and capesize bulkers was $1,800 per day.
Scrubber premiums are much more important to TCE rates in weak or moderate freight markets.
If a non-scrubber-equipped VLCC was earning $30,000 per day, just over breakeven, a scrubber-equipped VLCC would have a 31% higher TCE rate at the current VLSFO-HSFO spread. There have been times in very weak markets when scrubbers doubled TCE rates.
In contrast, Clarksons currently puts average non-eco VLCC rates at an astronomical $556,400 per day, meaning that the scrubber premium adds just 1.7% to the TCE — a drop in the bucket.
In the container shipping market, fuel costs are passed along to cargo shippers through bunker adjustment factors. BAFs are generally set quarterly and rise and fall with a lag in response to changes in bunker costs.
The 2Q26 BAFs were set too early to take the Hormuz crisis into account (carriers used emergency fuel surcharges in the interim).
In 3Q26, Asia-US east coast BAFs spiked by an average of 52% and Asia-US west coast BAFs surged by 76% — the highest quarter-on-quarter percentage increases on record.
The 4Q26 BAFs take into account the temporary fuel price decline during the US-Iran peace MoU period. Beginning on October 1, east coast BAFs will sequentially decline by 7% and west coast BAFs by 13%.
But the east coast BAF average for 4Q26 is still up 25% y/y, the west coast average is up 33% y/y, and given the recent rebound in bunker pricing, 1Q27 BAFs are poised to rise.
