El Niño conditions are continuing to intensify, with forecasts indicating further strengthening through the end of the year.
According to the NOAA, the official outlook of the Climate Prediction Centre, which incorporates multiple models from North America and other regions, projects ongoing development of the event during the months ahead.
The Administration adds that there is a 75% probability that El Niño will reach a historic level of intensity between October and December 2026.
The outlook states that the event could exceed the strength of all previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950, reaching a three-month RONI value of +2.5°C or higher.
NOAA’s September forecast also indicates a 97% likelihood that El Niño will attain Super El Niño status during the fall and winter period and persist into early spring. The agency further notes a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27.
The forecast information also notes contrasting effects on tropical cyclone activity.
El Niño has substantially suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season while increasing tropical activity across the Pacific. It is typically linked to lower tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and enhanced storm activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins.
