Weather conditions in the equatorial Pacific have shifted to a neutral state over the past month, with sea surface temperatures remaining close to average in the central and east‑central Pacific.
Forecast models from the Climate Prediction Centre indicate that these neutral conditions are expected to continue through April–June 2026, with an 80% probability.
Later in the year, conditions are forecast to change. NOAA models assign a 61% chance that El Niño will emerge during May–July 2026 and persist through at least the end of 2026.
By year‑end, there is a 51% likelihood that El Niño will be classified as either strong or very strong, with equal probability between the two categories.
El Niño has direct relevance for shipping through its influence on rainfall in Panama.
Reduced rainfall during El Niño periods can lower water levels in Lake Gatun, the freshwater reservoir used to operate the locks of the Panama Canal. When lake levels fall too far, restrictions can be placed on vessel transits.
Historical records cited by NOAA show a clear relationship between stronger El Niño events and reduced water levels in Lake Gatun.
During the strong El Niño of 2023–24, lake levels dropped to 79.2 feet, the third‑lowest level recorded since measurements began in 1965. This period was associated with significant capacity restrictions in the canal. Similarly, the very strong El Niño of 2015–16 saw water levels fall to nearly 78 feet, the lowest level ever recorded.
Based on current forecasts, NOAA notes that weather outcomes remain probabilistic. However, the outlook indicates a roughly 50% risk that El Niño conditions in 2026 could reach an intensity that has historically coincided with temporary restrictions on Panama Canal transits.
