by Lloyd's List

19 November 2024 (Lloyd's List) - ON NOVEMBER 19, 2023, Bahamas-flagged car carrier Galaxy Leader (IMO: 9237307) was travelling from Türkiye to India when it was hijacked by Iran-backed Houthi rebels off the Yemeni coast.

Its 22 crew were taken hostage and remain in captivity in Yemen, 365 days since their ordeal began.

Security company Ambrey would count more than 300 attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over the next year, turning the industry on its head and rerouting the vast majority of traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

Some shipowners continued to run the gauntlet through the Bab el Mandeb though. Unfortunately, several seafarers would pay for the decisions of their owners with their lives.

While the majority of reported incident were of near misses, some vessels were struck. Most notably, Barbados-flagged True Confidence (IMO: 9460784), which was hit by three rockets, killing three crew.

Belize-flagged Rubymar (IMO: 9138898) was hit by two missiles on February 18, before sinking two weeks later. Liberia-flagged bulker Tutor (IMO: 9942627) became the second vessel to be lost to Houthi rockets when it sank on June 19.

One of the most dramatic incidents came later in the year, when crude oil tanker Sounion (IMO: 9312145) was left stranded on fire for weeks, after being hit on August 23 and then set alight by Houthi rebels two days later.

Sounion's crude cargo was at risk of becoming the worst maritime oil spill of the century before it was successfully towed and its cargo discharged.

As shipping has attempted to make sense of the attacks and apply a rubric to Houthi targeting (the group has always claimed to be targeting Israeli-owned vessels or vessels that have called at Israeli ports), Lloyd's List has compiled data on beneficial ownership of the vessels attacked.

In terms of tonnage, Greek owners have been by far the most individually targeted, followed by Switzerland (largely due to Mediterranean Shipping Co-owned containerships) and Denmark.

There have been repeated reports of a deal between the Houthis and China and Russia since the crisis began. While no Russian vessels have as yet been hit by Houthi rockets, Chinese tonnage has been on the end of attacks over the last year.

The violence aimed at seafarers has been deplored by every corner of the industry, including several times by International Maritime Organization secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez.

But setting aside the most important part of the Houthi's campaign, the threat to life of seafarers, many ports have paid the price for the rerouting of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, which happened almost overnight.

Deputy editor Linton Nightingale explained how the Saudi ports of Jeddah and King Abdullah Port had suffered greatly from the rerouting.

King Abdullah Port had built its status on the hub and spoke model, and the evaporation of those spokes meant capacity calling at KAP was down 88% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

The story was similar in Jeddah, where calling capacity was down 70% in the first six months of 2024.

In the Mediterranean, fortunes were largely split between east and west. Eastern ports such as Piraeus and Port Said suffered from the effective closure of the Suez Canal, while western counterparts such as Valencia and Barcelona benefited from the Cape of Good Hope rerouting.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope extends the journey time between Rotterdam and Singapore by 40%, the International Energy Agency estimated, and if all vessels lost access to the Suez Canal tonne-miles would increase 10%.

Increased tonne-miles do of course mean some in shipping are benefiting from the Red Sea crisis. But longer journey times mean more fuel and more emissions (IEA estimated global oil demand will increase by 330,000 barrels per day in 2024 as a result of the rerouting) at a time when shipping is fighting for every tonne of CO2.

So, what is next? Several market analysts have boldly made predictions based on shipping returning the Red Sea next year. It's true, this crisis could end as quickly as it began, and we could see vessels once again using the shortcut in 2025.

But it is worth remembering that the last time the Suez Canal closed for an extended period of time, it didn't open for eight years.