by Priya Radünzel, SeaNewsEditor
- As a leader in sea logistics, Kuehne+Nagel closely tracks and collects data on the movement of vessels, including actual arrivals and vessel delays.
- A summary of this analysis, based on neutral data, is published monthly in our Schedule Reliability Report, available on Sea News.
Executive Summary
In September, global on-time performance increased slightly to 54.8%, an 8.0 percentage point improvement over the same month last year.
Average arrival delays also improved. LATE vessels were delayed by 3.8 days on average, while the average delay for ALL vessels was 1.6 days.
Performance across different trade routes varied, ranging from 44.1% to 79.5%. Five major trade lanes saw improvements in September, with the Asia↔South America route showing the largest increase.
However, some trades experienced declines, with decreases between -0.9 and -6.2 percentage points. Overall, the North America↔South America route was the most reliable.
Blank sailing data between weeks 36 and 39 revealed that 13.3% of capacity was blanked on the Asia→North Europe route, 12.8% on Asia→North America, and 8.3% on North Europe→North America.
Global On-Time Performance
Global on-time performance rose slightly compared to August, measuring 54.8%, marking an 8.0 percentage point improvement compared to the same month last year.
The average arrival delay for LATE vessels decreased by 0.2 days from August, reaching 3.8 days. Compared to September 2024, this delay remained unchanged.
For ALL vessels, the average arrival delay improved marginally to 1.6 days. This represents a 0.3-day reduction in delays YoY.
Reliability per Trade Lane
Last month, five out of eleven major trade routes saw improvements in schedule reliability, with gains ranging from 0.3 to 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. The remaining trade routes experienced declines, with decreases between -0.9 and -6.2 percentage points
The Asia↔South America route achieved the largest improvement, reaching an on-time performance of 50.6%. In contrast, the Asia↔Oceania route had the biggest decline, dropping to 47.3%.
When comparing YoY results, all trade routes improved by at least 4.2 percentage points.
Notably, Asia↔South America, Mediterranean/Black Sea↔North America, North America↔North Europe, and North America↔South America each recorded double-digit improvements.
Reliability on Asia↔ South America
This month’s report highlights the Asia↔South America trade route, which showed the largest month-over-month improvement in September.
On-time reliability for this route increased to 50.6%, up from 44.5% in August. This represents a gain of 10.2 percentage points compared to September 2024.
LATE vessels on this route arrived an average of 4.5 days after their scheduled time. For ALL vessels, the average arrival delay was 2.1 days.
A detailed breakdown of performance for each direction of this trade route is provided below.
Southbound
In September, on-time reliability on Asia→South America rose sharply to 65.6%, surpassing July’s performance.
Over the past nine months, reliability mostly stayed within the 60% range, except for dips in April, June, and August. Notably, August was the lowest-performing month in recent years.
LATE vessels arriving in South America were delayed by an average of 4.9 days, unchanged from the previous month. For ALL vessels, the average arrival delay improved to 1.6 days, down from a peak of 2.3 days in August.
Northbound
On-time performance for the South America→Asia route showed only a slight decline in September, reaching 41.0%.
Over the past nine months, reliability on this trade fluctuated between 38.3% and 57.4%, with September ranking among the lower-performing months. Year-over-year, however, this route improved by 5.9 percentage points.
LATE vessels arriving in Asia were delayed by an average of 4.3 days in September, a 0.3-day improvement compared to August but 0.5 days longer than in September 2024.
For ALL vessels, the average arrival delay improved by 0.3 days MoM, while YoY delays remained about the same (2.4 days).
Methodology
Calculating the on-time performance
To calculate the on-time performance of a service, Kuehne+Nagel uses vessel schedules from carrier(s) offering that service. Only carrier schedules that match our quality criteria are used for the schedule reliability calculation.
As carriers update schedules constantly, they become more accurate the closer vessels get to a destination port. For this reason, we have implemented a "schedule freeze period" of 14 days prior to actual vessel arrival. In other words, we benchmark the actual arrival with what carriers last announced 14 days earlier. To identify the actual time of arrival, Kuehne+Nagel consumes AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel data. All vessels which arrive within a +/- 24-hour window at the port of destination compared to the last announced arrival are considered to be on time. Port call omissions and blank sailings announced after the 14-day freeze are excluded from the calculation.
Assigning carrier services to multiple trade lanes
Many services operate on various trade lanes (e.g. a carrier service between Asia and North Europe also calls ports in the Middle East and or the Mediterranean), and therefore carrier services may be listed in multiple trade lanes.
Definition of trade lanes
There is no common standard for the definition of trade lanes. This means, depending on the source, you will find different trade lanes as well as different regions, countries and ports assigned to a trade lane. Kuehne+Nagel has defined its own way of mapping and has assigned ports to these trade lanes accordingly. On-time performances of vessels are captured in our reports on defined main trades, meaning trades moving large container volumes on vessels. Therefore, niche trades and services within one trade, called "Intra Trade" services (e.g. Intra-Asia, Intra-Europe), are currently out of scope.
A PDF version of this report can be found here.
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