by Manal Barakat, SeaNewsEditor
The prospect of ocean carriers returning to the Red Sea remains unclear, even after the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Maritime experts and analysts do not expect a quick resumption of the Suez Canal route, citing several factors, including the complexity and time required to adjust networks, the risk of renewed attacks, and potential port congestion if the return occurs simultaneously.
Alan Murphy, founder and CEO of Sea-Intelligence, stated, “This is all still very early days.” Murphy noted there are no assurances that the ceasefire will be durable or that it will bring an end to the conflict.
According to Murphy, adjusting ocean carrier networks is a complex process that requires time. Reinstating a single weekly service via the Suez Canal would require rerouting twelve out of fourteen vessels on a 98-day round trip.
Analysts also anticipate significant port congestion if all carriers decide to return to the Suez Canal route at the same time.
Speaking to CNBC, Murphy predicts, "If we see a somewhat simultaneous shift to Suez across the three alliances and MSC, then we are likely to see congestion and disruptions for at least 2-3 months, but could be up to 4-6 months."
Carriers have been avoiding the Red Sea since December 2023, with Houthi rebels targeting vessels associated with Israel or companies that have called at Israeli ports.
Houthi attacks have been described as inconsistent, leaving shipping companies at risk even if their sailings are not linked to Israel. With no clear position by the Houthis, the risk is likely to remain.
Lars Jensen, container analyst and owner of Vespucci Maritime, also expects that shipping companies will not return to the Red Sea in the near future.
“Changing the network is a huge operation, and it is extremely expensive and difficult to change it back again if the agreement does not hold,” Lars Jensen tells ShippingWatch.
Jensen believes it will be several months before carriers consider returning, even if a peace agreement is reached, as companies will need to be convinced of the agreement’s durability.
