by Lloyd's List
THERE are no signs shipping is returning to the Red Sea with any significance, despite the ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hamas earlier this month.
Preliminary data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows that transits through the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint were down nearly 5% in September, with 999 transits versus 1,049 in August 2025.
That is an increase of 14% on September 2024, but still 57% down on the number of transits seen before the Houthis began their campaign on commercial shipping.
Most vessel types recorded a broadly similar number of transits from August to September, apart from containerships and crude oil tankers, which saw decreases of more than 10%.
The data supports the comments made by several analysts earlier this month, which questioned whether the announcement of a ceasefire would be enough to entice owners back to the Red Sea.
Vespucci Maritime founder Lars Jensen said it would be “unlikely that the ceasefire will lead to any material changes in container shipping operations in the short term”.
“The ceasefire which was in place from January to March 2025 did not lead to any material change in operations. Shipping lines wanted to be sure that the situation did not revert back before committing to a change.”
Drewry senior manager, container research, Simon Heaney said carriers would have to be “utterly convinced the Red Sea is completely safe before deciding to go back”, and pointed to insurance premiums as a good barometer for how likely carriers are to return.
Traffic volumes through the Bab el Mandeb have been slowly increasing over the last six months, as some opportunistic owners expand services and a small number of owners and operators return to the region, Lloyd’s List senior risk and compliance analyst Bridget Diakun explained.
The average number of monthly transits from April-September was 983, compared to 950 from October 2024-March 2025.
“It’s small gains but reflects a very subtle shift where some people are exploring the resumption of transits,” Diakun said.
There has been little material change in daily transits since the ceasefire was announced on October 9, 2025.
The Houthi-run Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center told Lloyd’s List it was “well known” that Houthi operations were “directly linked to the event taking place in the Gaza Strip”.
“Accordingly, the cessation of the military operations in support of Gaza is contingent upon the complete and actual cessation of the aggression against it, and the entry of humanitarian aid, food, medicine, and other essential supplies,” a spokesperson told Lloyd’s List.
“This is indeed what we hope for, as it has been the principal objective of these supportive operations.”
The data suggests that shipowners remain cautiously sceptical of this promise.
Transits through the Suez Canal however have increased for the fourth consecutive month, with 979 transits recorded last month compared to 938 in August.
Transits are 13% higher compared to September 2024 and 51% below pre-Houthi attack levels.
This is a slight improvement seeing as transits have typically been around 55% below pre-Houthi levels.
The canal has offered significant discounts, including 15% to large containerships, in a bid to entice shipowners back through the shortcut.
But so far, it’s bulk carriers and product tankers that are leading the way back to the canal.
The flexibility these segments enjoy means they are able to make decisions from voyage to voyage, Diakun explained, and some of these transits are instances of ships returning from Cape of Good Hope diversions.
Again, since the ceasefire transits via the Suez Canal have remained within the levels seen since the Houthi campaign began.
