A quick diplomatic breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz now appears less likely after Washington chose not to prolong its June understanding with Tehran. Asked on Monday whether the US would seek to extend the ceasefire, President Donald Trump replied simply: “No”.

Shortly afterwards, Reuters reported that Iran was preparing to shift to a “fully offensive” approach as talks on a permanent end to the conflict had stalled. A senior Iranian official warned that units must be ready to escalate tensions in Hormuz and the wider region if diplomacy fails.

The interim agreement, signed on 17 June, had given both sides 60 days to seek a broader deal on issues including Iran’s nuclear programme and US sanctions.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the deadline was “irrelevant” because negotiations had never begun. Trump also threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructed US-Iran talks and said he “likes the idea” of declaring the Strait of Hormuz US territory.

Turkey continued to call for diplomacy, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urging Trump to keep negotiations with Iran open and offering Turkish support for peace efforts.

Shipping risks extend to key chokepoints

The risk of a wider regional conflict has also increased following renewed Houthi activity in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategic shipping chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis claimed to have attacked a Saudi military vessel and escort ships, though there was no immediate confirmation from Saudi authorities.

For shipping, the latest developments point to continued uncertainty across two critical maritime passages.