by Priya Radünzel, SeaNewsEditor

In the wake of the trade war between China and the US, the volume of goods shipped from China plummeted due to increasing uncertainty surrounding tariffs on Chinese exports.

In response to the shift in demand, carriers have swiftly adapted by announcing an increasing number of blank sailings each week, often with very short notice.

According to analysts at Linerlytica, carriers announced 12 blank sailings from the Far East to the US West Coast in week 18, increasing to 16 the following week.

In comparison, the average number of blank sailings in April was eight, peaking at nine in Week 15.

To better understand the impact of blank sailings, analysts at Sea-Intelligence reviewed the number of void sailings as a percentage of offered capacity.

The outcome was similar: “Once again, we see a significant increase over the past two weeks, which also coincide[s] with the escalation of the trade war.“

The analyst firm projects carriers will blank 28% of planned capacity in week 18 compared to 13% last week.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the direction of tariffs, carriers have held back on trimming capacity past week 19. Major carriers have announced “just” nine void sailings in week 20.

While shipments from China have dropped, volumes from Southeast Asian countries, specifically Vietnam, have increased.

This was also reflected in some of the service withdrawals announced by carriers looking to shift their capacity elsewhere.

For example, ZIM has withdrawn its Central China Xpress (ZX2) service between Shanghai, Ningbo, and Los Angeles. Notably, the line will add a Haiphong call to its Ecommerce Xpress (ZEX) service to cater to the increased volume out of Vietnam.

Similarly, MSC has withdrawn its Orient service between Korea, China and the US West Coast, and ONE will continue suspending its planned PN4 service from China to the US West Coast.

US East Coast

Blank sailings to the US East Coast have mirrored the trend seen on the US West Coast, with carriers increasing the number of blank sailings each week.

According to data from Sea-Intelligence, carriers expect shippers to move 42% less cargo in week 19 than anticipated.

Looking ahead

Shippers and consignees await positive development in tariff talks between the two powerhouses before placing or reinstating bookings to the US.

If the countries reach an agreement by mid-May, a surge in bookings and volumes can be expected.

Conversely, if there is no positive change, carriers will cancel further sailings and/or withdraw further capacity on this route.

In addition, volumes from more favourable tariff countries such as Vietnam could result in vessel space and equipment shortages.

On a positive note, local media reports that there could be light at the end of the tunnel.

President Trump signalled on Tuesday that tariffs on Chinese goods will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”

While this may suggest a softening stance from the American side, the prevailing uncertainty forces shippers and carriers to remain reactive to tariff adjustments.

Stay ahead with the latest updates! Subscribe to our SeaNews newsletter for the most relevant information.