by Manal Barakat, SeaNewsEditor

Four weeks from now, US East and Gulf Coast ports could face the next series of strikes by the International Longshoremen Association (ILA).

During the recent meeting between ILA leaders and President-elect Donald Trump, media analysts described Trump's position as supportive of the union.

On 3 October 2024, the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), the employers' organisation, reached a tentative deal to raise union worker salaries by 61.5%, which stopped the initial three-day walkout.

However, the issue of port automation remains unresolved. If the two sides do not agree by 15 January 2025, the ILA will go on strike at 12:01 a.m. on 16 January.

Harold J. Daggett, leader of the ILA, strongly opposes port automation, fearing job losses in the US. But his plans extend beyond the US East and Gulf coasts.

During a video message published in September, Daggett announced that he plans to form a global union to combat automation, although experts doubt its feasibility.

Potential strike consequences

Lloyd's List analysts estimate, "A strike would be on its fifth day, almost twice as long than the October strike, by Trump’s inauguration on January 20."

Building on the impact of the stoppages in October, large ship queues will likely form off the coastlines in January if the strikes occur. Analysts also foresee business groups asking the new US administration to invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to force an 80-day "cooling off" period.

Meanwhile, carriers are already anticipating the scene next year.

On Tuesday, Maersk sent an advisory to customers stating, "The situation remains dynamic as we await further developments, with the possibility of a strike…increasing without a settled contract."

Multiple container liners, including MSC, CMA CGM and Evergreen, expect operational disruptions during the first months of the year, whether related to the potential strikes or the introduction of new carrier networks as of February 2025.

As a precaution, they announced some surcharges to be implemented in January 2025.

Journal of Commerce analysts believe a strike would seriously impair major port operations, causing delays in the handling and transfer of cargo.

Consequently, this interruption may impact supply chains, delay goods delivery, and affect companies that depend on on-time shipments.