As a leader in sea logistics, Kuehne+Nagel closely tracks and collects data on the movement of vessels, including actual arrivals and vessel delays. Kuehne+Nagel will be publishing a summary of this analysis in monthly Schedule Reliability reports based entirely on neutral data. This summary is available within SeaNews in seaexplorer as well as in myKN for all Kuehne+Nagel customers and myKN subscribers.
Global On-Time Performance
As illustrated in the figure below, schedule reliability has taken big steps upward since the beginning of the year. The largest improvement was seen in February when schedule reliability jumped nearly 10% month-on-month. Seaexplorer data for April show that 63.9% of vessels arrived on schedule. While this constitutes a slight drop compared to the month of March, it reflects a significant improvement compared to 2022.
In this context, it is important to note that the market is seeing multiple blanking activities by carriers. According to London-based consultancy Drewry, "20 cancelled sailings have been announced between weeks 21 (22 May-28 May) and week 25 (19 June - 25 June)" across the major East-West headhaul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med.
Last year, global on-time performance was at its lowest in April (35.4%). The percentage continued to grow gradually since then, adding extra 28% year-on-year.
The global monthly average delay in the arrival of LATE vessels improved as well in April. LATE container vessels had an average delay of 3.5 days. This constitutes a slight drop compared to March when the global monthly average was 3.8 days. A year-on-year comparison shows that this average was shortened by 1.3 days (27%) from April 2022.
The average delay for ALL vessels remained the same as the average in March (1.2 days). Similar to LATE vessels, the average improved significantly year-on-year, dropping by over 55% compared to last year’s 2.8 days.
Reliability per Trade Lane
Each of the main trade lanes progressed differently this month. Vessels on the trans-Atlantic witnessed the largest decrease out of the three major trade lanes (trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asia-North Europe). Schedule reliability on this route fell 8.3% from 56.1% in March to reach 47.8% in April. The Asia-North Europe trade had the highest percentage of the three at 64.8%, while ships on the trans-Pacific had a reliability of 53.8%.
Taking all main lanes into consideration, the lane with the highest reliability was the Mediterranean-South America with 90.1% on-time performance.
Reliability on the Mediterranean/Black Sea – South America
A look at the trade with the highest schedule reliability, namely the Mediterranean/Black Sea – South America, confirms the progress we see on a global level. The westbound of this trade started off strong at the beginning of the year, with 81.7% reliability in January. This percentage grew to 88.1% in March and jumped 7.7% in April to 95.8%.
The progress is slightly different on the eastbound of this route. Vessels travelling from South America to the Mediterranean/Black Sea had a schedule reliability of 82.9% in April, nearly the same percentage in March. However, compared to April 2022, the on-time performance of ships on the eastbound grew +35%.
Conclusion
While global on-time performance in April witnessed a slight drop this month to 63.9%, the yearly progress was the highest seen this month as it grew extra 28%.
With 47.8%, the trans-Atlantic witnessed the largest decrease in on-time performance in April. In the meantime, vessels on the Asia-North Europe trade had the highest percentage of the three major trade lanes (trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asia-NE) at 64.8%, while ships on the trans-Pacific had a reliability of 53.8%.
Carriers and alliances have been actively blanking several of their sailings. Drewry information reveals, "20 cancelled sailings have been announced between weeks 21 (22 May-28 May) and week 25 (19 June - 25 June)" across the major East-West headhaul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med.
Methodology
Calculating the on-time performance
To calculate the on-time performance of a service, Kuehne+Nagel uses vessel schedules from carrier(s) offering that service. Only carrier schedules that match our quality criteria are used for the schedule reliability calculation.
As carriers update schedules constantly, they become more accurate the closer vessels get to a destination port. For this reason, we have implemented a "schedule freeze period" of 14 days prior to actual vessel arrival. In other words, we benchmark the actual arrival with what carriers last announced 14 days earlier. To identify the actual time of arrival, Kuehne+Nagel consumes AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel data. All vessels which arrive within a +/- 24-hour window at the port of destination compared to the last announced arrival are considered to be on time.
Assigning carrier services to multiple trade lanes
Many services operate on various trade lanes (e.g. a carrier service between Asia and North Europe also calls ports in the Middle East and or the Mediterranean), and therefore carrier services may be listed in multiple trade lanes.
Definition of trade lanes
There is no common standard for the definition of trade lanes. This means, depending on the source, you will find different trade lanes as well as different regions, countries and ports assigned to a trade lane. Kuehne+Nagel has defined its own way of mapping and has assigned ports to these trade lanes accordingly. On-time performances of vessels are captured in our reports on defined main trades, meaning trades moving large container volumes on vessels. Therefore, niche trades and services within one trade, called „Intra Trade“ services (e.g. Intra-Asia, Intra-Europe) are currently out of scope.
