As a leader in sea logistics, Kuehne+Nagel closely tracks and collects data on the movement of vessels, including actual arrivals and vessel delays. Kuehne+Nagel will be publishing a summary of this analysis in monthly Schedule Reliability Reports based entirely on neutral data. This summary is available within SeaNews in seaexplorer as well as in myKN for all Kuehne+Nagel customers and myKN subscribers.
Global On-Time Performance
Seaexplorer data for March 2023 show that global on-time performance improved remarkably in the first quarter, jumping to 66.5% in March. Compared to February levels (63.7%), schedule reliability progressed by nearly 3%. The upward trend has been consistent over the past few months. However, this month marks a new record not seen in the past two years. On another, while reliability improved, carriers have blanked many sailings this quarter, impacting the services and capacities offered.
According to analysis firm Drewry, carriers have blanked 8% of sailings across the major East-West head-haul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, between weeks 17 (24 April-30 April) and week 21 (22 May - 28 May).
The global monthly average delay in the arrival of LATE vessels has also marked an improvement month-on-month. In February, LATE container vessels were late for 4.4 days on average. This was reduced to 3.8 days in March, an improvement of 0.6 days (nearly 16%).
The case is, however, different when we look at ALL vessels. The monthly average delay in the arrival of ALL vessels globally reveals a smaller improvement month-on-month, dropping to 1.2 days. In February 2023, the average delay was 1.4 days. March data show that this average was cut by only 0.2 days since February. However, when compared to the average a year ago, the improvement this year exceeded 50%.
Reliability per Trade Lane
On a trade lane level, multiple changes have occurred. Of the three major trade lanes (trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asia-North Europe), Asia-North Europe remained the lane with the best on-time performance, achieving 68.2% reliability. Compared to February 2023, the improvement was nearly 3.5%. The trans-Pacific had the lowest percentage of the three at 54.8%, while ships on the trans-Atlantic had a reliability of 56.1%.
Looking at all the main trades, the reliability of vessels on the North Europe-South America route was the highest at 89.8%. The lane with the least schedule reliability was the Mediterranean – North America trade with 50.3%.
On-time Performance on the Trans-Atlantic
This month we take a closer look at the trans-Atlantic. The schedule reliability of vessels moving westbound has progressed steadily over the past three months. As shown in the figure below, the on-time performance of ships heading west from North Europe to North America reached 45.7% in March. This marks an improvement of 4.6% from February 2023. Compared to a year earlier, March data mark a remarkable jump by 27.2% from 18.5% in March 2022.
Vessels moving eastbound on this lane achieved a schedule reliability of 66.8% in March. The progress on the eastbound journey was higher than on the westbound journey, improving by nearly 15%. Compared to March 2022, the improvement on this route jumped by almost 50%.
Conclusion
Last month marked the highest level of on-time performance so far seen in the past two years. Schedule reliability reached 66.5% in March 2023, marking a month-on-month improvement of nearly 3% and a year-on-year improvement of over 20%.
Out of the three major trade lanes (trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asia-North Europe), Asia-North Europe had the highest reliability level for the second month in a row at 68.2%. The trans-Pacific had the lowest percentage out of the three at 54.8%.
With global demands slowly reaching pre-pandemic levels, carriers continue to adjust their capacity and services. According to analysis firm Drewry, carriers have blanked 8% of sailings across the major East-West head-haul trades: Transpacific, Transatlantic and Asia-North Europe & Med, between weeks 17 (24 April-30 April) and week 21 (22 May - 28 May).
Methodology
Calculating the on-time performance
To calculate the on-time performance of a service, KN uses vessel schedules from carrier(s) offering that service. As carriers update schedules constantly, they become more accurate the closer vessels get to a destination port. For this reason, we have implemented a "schedule freeze period" of 14 days prior to actual vessel arrival. In other words, we benchmark the actual arrival with what carriers last announced 14 days earlier. To identify the actual time of arrival, KN consumes AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel data. All vessels which arrive within a +/- 24-hour window at the port of destination compared to the last announced arrival are considered to be on time.
Assigning carrier services to multiple trade lanes
Many services operate on various trade lanes (e.g. a carrier service between Asia and North Europe also calls ports in the Middle East and or the Mediterranean), and therefore carrier services may be listed in multiple trade lanes.
Definition of trade lanes
There is no common standard for the definition of trade lanes. This means, depending on the source, you will find different trade lanes as well as different regions, countries and ports assigned to a trade lane. Kuehne+Nagel has defined its own way of mapping and has assigned ports to these trade lanes accordingly. On-time performances of vessels are captured in our reports on defined main trades, meaning trades moving large container volumes on vessels. Therefore, niche trades and services within one trade, called „Intra Trade“ services (e.g. Intra-Asia, Intra-Europe) are currently out of scope.
