TRAFFIC through the Red Sea’s chokepoints fell sharply last month, driven by a mix of seasonal slowdown and heightened security risks stemming from renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
Bab el Mandeb and Suez transits fell for the second consecutive month after a relative peak in November.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, some 1,079 cargo carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt transited through Bab el Mandeb in January, equal to 73.6m dwt in tonnage terms. This represents a 2% decrease since December when 1,103 vessels transited, which was equal to 77.1m dwt.
Suez Canal transits slowed to 924, or 70.3m dwt, in January, down from 998 and 78.9m dwt in December.
Traffic at Bab el‑Mandeb remains higher than a year ago, with January 2026 transits up 11% and total tonnage up 16% compared with January 2025.
Elevated passings reflect the fact some owners and operators have begun to resume Red Sea transits, though only on a limited scale.
BIMCO chief analyst Niels Rasmussen said the drop in activity is not necessarily related to routing decisions based on security issues, with January historically seeing fewer transits than the monthly average.
“It is reasonable to assume that the same is the case this year wherefore any reduction between December and January can be explained by seasonality,” he told Lloyd’s List.
The decline was led by bulk carriers and crude oil tankers, which saw the sharpest pullback in movements. Crude tanker transits through the Suez Canal had climbed to 245 in December — the second‑highest monthly level since the Houthi campaign began in late 2023, before easing to 194 in January. Even so, activity remained ahead of last year’s pace, when January saw just 178 crude tanker transits.
Antonella Teodoro, a senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, said a mix of factors is shaping operators’ decisions. “Market conditions, including refinery demand, commodity flows and seasonal trading patterns, could be among the influences, alongside residual security concerns and insurance considerations.”
She added that the selective return of vessels reflects “cautious, market‑driven judgement rather than a straightforward return to pre‑crisis routing patterns”, leaving the timing of a full recovery uncertain.
The number of bulk carriers using the route fell to 290, extending a two‑month downward trend. January 2026 volumes were broadly in line with the same month a year earlier, indicating that the recent softening reflects short‑term caution rather than a deeper structural shift.
Even though seasonality has an important role in the decreasing traffic volumes, the new security risks are at play, too, according to Ian Ralby, founder and chief executive of IR Consilium.
Ralby said much of 2026 has unfolded under a cloud of expectation that violence against the Iranian regime could flare again, leaving uncertainty at its highest.
“Tensions are high, uncertainty is high and risks are high, so it is unsurprising that trade volumes are low,” he told Lloyd’s List.
Tension around the Red Sea remains high, fuelled by US threats of regime change in Iran in the wake of Washington’s forcible removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. The Iranian-backed Houthis have continued to escalate their rhetoric, signalling further attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and on sites across the waterway if the US intervenes. The result is a climate in which uncertainty dominates routing decisions.
Containership traffic through Bab el‑Mandeb is rising, though, even as wider regional volatility continues to shape routing choices, with operators gradually restoring services while other vessel segments remain more cautious. Forty-one containerships transited in January 2026, a twofold increase compared to the same month of last year. This is also the highest number of containerships using this route since January 2024.
The rise in containership traffic through Bab el‑Mandeb appears to be in part because eastbound flows are strengthening again. With the Europe-Asia backhaul trade now at one of its weakest points on record, carriers are effectively subsidising eastbound movements to keep equipment circulating and maintain service reliability.
Eunavfor Aspides told Lloyd’s List that many ships have been contacting the mission to request naval protection for Red Sea transits, a sign that operators are increasingly willing to return to the route. They described this as evidence that carriers are “eager to resume the Red Sea route”, even if conditions remain volatile.
Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, Commander of Eunavfor Aspides, told Lloyd’s List that following the sharp decline recorded between November 2023 and June 2024, daily transits steadily increased through 2025: “At the same time, several shipping companies are reconsidering the use of the Red Sea and Suez Canal route, encouraged by the improved security environment.”
January was not the strongest month for Suez either, with 924 transits, or about 70.3m dwt, traversing the waterway. This is a 7% fall from the 998 transits in December 2025, and an 11% drop-off in tonnage terms from 78.9m dwt. These are the lowest volumes reported in the past five months.
That said, the transits are still higher than in the corresponding month of 2025 figures, up 2% in terms of transits and 7% by dwt.
Rear Admiral Gryparis said that although the security backdrop was improving, containership traffic has not yet fully returned to pre-crisis levels. Any shift back to Suez must be carried out gradually and with strict prioritisation of crew and cargo safety, he explained.
“Moreover, keep in mind that ship operators require at least three months to reschedule their contracts. The relative calm we are seeing is a crucial factor in the recovery of traffic in the Red Sea. Still, the additional costs of maritime insurance applied in war-risk areas are equally important.
“A reduction in these rates will undoubtedly encourage smaller shipping companies to resume sailing through the Suez Canal via the Red Sea. So, despite the protection that Aspides can provide, and will continue to provide, insurance surcharges remain at such a level that only large companies will be able to continue using the Red Sea and Suez routes.
“If the expected recovery is slow to materialise, it is because one essential element is missing: geopolitical stability. Rarely has a region been the focus of so many crises simultaneously, with such uncertain outcomes.”
Ralby is more cautious on the security risks, stating that the “Red Sea remains one of the most dangerous areas of the world for maritime commerce”.
The Joint Maritime Information Center currently rates the Red Sea threat level as moderate, noting that the Houthis have repeatedly declared strong support for Iran and warned that any strike on the country would render all US ships and interests in the region “legitimate targets”.
“Given the increasing volatility in the region, Houthi intent to resume attacks against shipping they deem as a legitimate target could change quickly. The threat level currently reflects threats to all shipping in the region,” it warned.
Traffic through the Red Sea rose steadily but cautiously in the second half of 2025, more than a year after the Houthis began targeting vessels on the route. Yet with security conditions still volatile, insurance costs elevated, vessel segments reacting differently to risk, and both Suez Canal and Bab el‑Mandeb transits slipping again in recent months, the fragility of the recovery is clear. A full return to normality remains difficult to forecast in the absence of geopolitical stability.
