by Lloyd's List
11 October 2024 (Lloyd's List) - NEW statistics released by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) reveal the extent of the fallout from the historic drought.
Transits have recently rebounded, but the damage in the ACP’s fiscal year 2024 (October 1, 2023-September 30, 2024) was already done. The canal handled 9,936 transits in FY24, down 29% from FY23.
ACP administrator Ricaurte Vasquez has previously stated that the trend in transits will not be reflective of FY24 net income, due higher cargo volumes per transit, “windfall revenue” in the beginning of the fiscal year from congestion surcharges, and reduced expenses. (The ACP had not yet released year-end tonnage and financial data.)
There were 2,852 transits via the neopanamax locks in FY24, down 21% year on year. Transits for these locks’ top business – containerships – actually increased slightly, by 36 transits or 2% versus FY23.
The second-largest users of the neopanamax locks, very large gas carriers, dropped by 165 transits or 17%. The third largest, liquefied natural gas carriers, plummeted by 214 transits or 66%.
FY24 also saw a big decline in other segments using the neopanamax locks, including tankers, dry bulk and ro-ros. There were 428 fewer neopanamax transits in non-container/VLGC/LNG segments in FY24 than in FY23, a severe decline of 74%.
Containerships, VLGCs and LNG carriers accounted for 95% of neopanamax locks transits in the latest fiscal year versus 84% in the prior period.
Transits in the panamax locks fell more steeply than in the neopanamax locks in FY24. Panamax transits came in at 7,084, down 32% versus FY23.
The dry bulk sector was the biggest negative, with 1,055 fewer panamax locks transits in FY24 versus FY23, a drop of 46%. Other big decliners were chemical tankers (down 381 transits or 17%), general cargo (down 238 transits or 45%), and refrigerated carriers (down 110 transits or 20%).
Positive momentum stalled in September
The monthly numbers have varied widely across FY24. Monthly stats fell precipitously in November 2023 through March 2024 as transit restrictions blocked passages. Monthly transits have rebounded as restrictions were removed, closing in on levels seen in first month the fiscal year.
But that rebound slowed in September, according to ACP data*. There were 958 combined transits through all locks systems last month, essentially unchanged (up two) versus August.
Alexei Oduber, head of shipping agency GAC Panama, pointed out in an interview with Lloyd’s List on Thursday that the canal is currently operating below capacity. The latest numbers bear that out. There were an average of 31.9 transits per day in September, versus 36 available reservation slots.
Transits via the neopanamax locks reversed their upward trend last month and dropped by 3%, driven by 14 fewer containership transits and five fewer VLGC transits. LNG carrier transits remained very low, at just eight in September, while those of other segments (bulkers and tankers) rose by 10 versus August.
Panamax locks transits increased by 2% in September versus August, driven by a slight uptick in business from crude and product tankers and refrigerated carriers.
* The ACP does not release monthly transit statistics by segment or statistics on total monthly transits. It releases fiscal-year-to-date transits by segment and fiscal-year-to-date total transits since October, the beginning of its fiscal year. Lloyd’s List calculates monthly transits by comparing each month’s cumulative fiscal-year-to-date statistics, and derives transits per day from this data.
