Panama Canal yet to see tariff hit, but it could be coming soon

Panama Canal yet to see tariff hit, but it could be coming soon

April canal transits rose 9% in neopanamax locks versus March, and declined 6% in the panamax locks

by Lloyd's List


7 May 2025 (Lloyd's List) - PANAMA Canal traffic remained strong in April, with a rise in neopanamax transits — led by containerships — offsetting a pullback in the panamax locks.

 

Total transits in April fell 2% versus March, with neopanamax transits up 9% and panamax transits down 6%, according to statistics released by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP)* on Wednesday.

 

Adjusted for one fewer day in April versus March, transits per day were up 1% month on month. The canal is now close to transit levels recorded prior to the drought. Total transits last month were 5% below numbers in April 2023.

 

The business-as-usual operations at the waterway come amid an ongoing geopolitical clash with the US, which has continued despite the proposed sale of Hong Kong-controlled Panama Ports Co (a deal that has yet to close) and an agreement between Panama and the US military signed last month.

 

In an interview on Sunday, US president Donald Trump was asked about his desire to control Canada and Greenland, and possibly take Greenland by military force, and he replied, “You forgot the Panama Canal.”

 

Anti-US sentiment is rising in Panama. Thousands marched in Panama City on Tuesday, protesting the agreement that gives US troops new access to Panama’s air and naval facilities.

 

Panama also faces fallout from US tariffs on China and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on the US. The effect hasn’t shown up in the transit stats yet, but looks likely to begin this month.

 

Neopanamax locks

A record number of Asia-US east coast container voyages have been blanked in response to America’s 145% tariff on Chinese exports.

 

This will likely depress neopanamax containership transits through the canal starting in May, but voyages from Asia appear to have left early enough to keep April numbers high.

 

According to ACP data, 173 containerships passed through the neopanamax locks last month, the second-highest number on record and up 9% from the month before.

 

Very large gas carrier transits also rose, up 10% in April versus March, despite the 125% tariff imposed by China on US propane for cargoes loaded after April 10.

 

Ship position data shows that VLCGs are continuing to use the canal for the ballast leg to the US Gulf, and that VLGCs passing through canal and heading across the Pacific are mostly bound for Japan and South Korea.

 

Meanwhile, the neopanamax locks handled seven liquefied natural gas carrier transits last month. That’s still very low — around a quarter of levels seen prior to the drought, but it’s up from recent months. In November 2024-March 2025, only two or three LNG carriers transited per month.

 

Panamax locks

The two most important vessel segments for the panamax locks are dry bulker carriers and chemical tankers.

 

China has placed a 125% tariff on US soyabean exports, raising concerns about future flows on this trade, particularly in the next US export season in the fall. However, ship position data continues to show US bulkers using the canal to transit to the Pacific, with destinations including Japan, Korea and China.

 

There were 17 fewer transits of both bulkers and chemical tankers through the panamax locks in April versus March, with crude/product tankers dropping by 13, containerships by 12, and refrigerated vessels by 10. Transits of panamax containerships were at their lowest level in the past 30 months.

 

On the plus side, there were 84 ro-ro transits in April, up 24% month on month to the highest tally in the past 30 months.

 

* The ACP does not release monthly transit statistics by segment or statistics on total monthly transits. It releases fiscal-year-to-date transits by segment and fiscal-year-to-date total transits since October, the beginning of its fiscal year. Lloyd’s List calculates monthly transits by comparing each month’s cumulative fiscal-year-to-date statistics.

Source: Lloyd's List, Lloyd's List