by Lloyd's List
2 July 2025 (Lloyd's List) - A BOXSHIP operated by the world’s largest container shipping line, Mediterranean Shipping Co, has sailed through the Bab el Mandeb for the first time in 18 months.
The landmark voyage was made by the 6,700 teu MSC Antonia (IMO: 9398216), which ran aground in May this year off Saudi Arabia, according to vessel-tracking monitored by Lloyd’s List Intelligence platform Seasearcher.
A Lloyd’s List Intelligence casualty report at the time suggested evidence the vessel was a victim of GNSS interference, with analysis highlighting spoofing patterns that resulted in the grounding near Eliza Shoals west of Jeddah.
Since MSC Antonia ran aground its AIS data has consistently been affected by GNSS interference. But clean data from June 19 shows the vessel leaving Jeddah.
On June 16, satellite imagery reviewed by Lloyd’s List shows a containership of the same size as MSC Antonia still berthed in Jeddah consistent with untampered with AIS data.
There is a gap in the ships AIS broadcast between June 20 to 21 and again from June 21 through to June 26. MSC Antonia reappears in the Indian Ocean sailing east.
This suggests that MSC Antonia transited the Bab el Mandeb during the gap in AIS transmissions.
MSC Antonia is now passing through the Singapore Strait signalling Shanghai, China, as its destination.
This is the first known transit of an MSC-operated vessel since December 2023, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data.
MSC has been contacted for comment.
The most likely scenarios would be that the vessel is either heading to Shanghai for minor repairs or to repatriate empties as an extra loader. MSC’s website shows no fixed schedule. Vessel-tracking data indicates a speed of around 18 knots, which suggests no significant damage has been sustained to the vessel.
Lloyd’s List has asked MSC for confirmation.
The recent conflict between Iran and Israel has once again raised the risk factor in the Red Sea, with the prospect of the Iranian-backed Houthi’s reviving attacks on commercial shipping not being ruled out. A return to the Red Sea, or at least a full-scale return, is being seen as completely off the table in the short term, despite the ceasefire.
Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels told Lloyd’s List that it’s “wait and see” for now.
“Nobody wants to move first but nobody wants to be the last either,” he said.
However, he said that with the prospect of charter rates falling significantly with much lower travelling times, “nobody is desperate to return”.
“Once vessels return, it will be pretty complicated to figure out. In the container market, because of supply chains, but charterparties in the other segments are also signed well in advance so that won’t be easy to navigate for many companies,” said Siebels.
Over the past few months, several carriers have been testing the water with ad hoc Red Sea sailings. Most notable has been CMA CGM, which is the only major carrier line to have continued to sail through the Bab el Mandeb throughout the crisis.
Last month, the Marseille-based carrier set sail through the Suez with the 15,000 teu vessel CMA CGM Osiris (IMO: 9882504), representing the biggest containership since March last year on its journey from Singapore to Alexandria, Egypt.
The CMA CGM Osiris voyage remains an anomaly, however, with no repeat journey from a similar sized ship since.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracking data shows that in the first half of 2025, there was though a near 25% jump in the number of monthly average containership transits through the Bab el Mandeb compared to last year, rising from 177 sailings to 221. In 2023, this average monthly number was as high as 587.
However, his increase has largely been driven by the expansion of feeder services in the region to maintain localised cargo coverage.
In June, Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel tracking showed that boxships with a capacity below 5,000 teu comprised 84% of the fleet transiting the Bab el Mandeb. Before the onset of Houthi attacks in November 2023, vessels of this class represented just 23%.
Earlier today, Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Seasearcher platform showed that ultra-large tonnage continues to remain notably absent in the Red Sea, with just two vessels with a capacity above 10,000 teu located in the region.
While there have only been the exploratory voyages through the Bab el Mandeb by CMA CGM and MSC, Control Risks director Cormac McGarry expects that it will be a more concerted move by one of the larger box carriers that will be the trigger for a full-scale return.
“Every owner has a different risk tolerance. I do suspect that once a big line like MSC or Maersk moves en masse it will trigger the business minds to follow suit, lest they get outcompeted on rates.”
Additional reporting by Rob Willmington
