THE Middle East Gulf crisis remains the single biggest drag on global container volumes, wiping out an estimated 660,000 teu from April alone, or about 4% of worldwide throughput, while distorting a market that would otherwise be enjoying a strong start to 2026.
Yet even as the region pulls the global numbers sharply lower, the wider market continues to demonstrate a resilience that has become the defining feature of the year so far.
The latest figures published by UK-based Container Trades Statistics shows April volumes climbing 1.6% on March and 4.3% higher than the same month in 2025 to 16.24m teu, lifting year‑to‑date growth to 5.1% despite the disruption.
Had Middle East volumes held steady, global throughput for the first four months would have comfortably exceeded 6% growth.
Instead, the collapse in this regional trade, with imports and exports down 54% and 48% respectively, has left a clear mark on the year‑to‑date figures and highlighted how quickly concentrated geopolitical risk can influence an otherwise expanding market.
The crisis has not derailed global momentum, but it has exposed the fragility of supply chains that depend on a handful of strategic gateways.
Even so, the sharp reduction in Gulf traffic is beginning to show the first signs of adjustment. April’s shortfall was 180,000 teu lower than March, reflecting the speed with which carriers are reshaping networks, reallocating capacity and carving out alternative corridors to keep cargo moving. CTS said that as much as 1.6m teu has been eroded from MEG trades since the start of the year due to the geopolitical hostilities in the region.
The Red Sea Saudi ports of both Jeddah and King Abdullah Port have emerged as the principal diversion hubs, each handling around 50% more cargo year on year, according to CTS, as lines discharge containers on the Red Sea for onward movement by truck into Qatar and the UAE. This workaround would have seemed improbable only months ago, but stands as evidence of how quickly the liner industry has been able to adjust to a fast-moving geopolitical landscape environment much in the same way it responded to the recent hostilities in the Red Sea.
Elsewhere, the standout development came from the North American market, delivering one of the month’s biggest surprises. Volumes had been trailing well behind 2025, or at least until now.
North America imports rose 6.2% year on year in April, narrowing the year‑to‑date deficit to 1.9%, according to CTS. This was driven by a sharp rebound in volumes traversing the transpacific corridor, which showed its first meaningful revival in April having been subdued for months. Transpacific volumes were 9.6% higher than March and 11.3% higher than a year earlier. And much of this additional cargo business came from China, whose exports to the US surged 21% compared with April 2025.
Whether this reflects a belief that the most volatile phase of the tariff war has passed remains to be seen, but the numbers suggest a shift in sentiment.
As reported by Lloyd’s List, Drewry said it had received confirmation from multiple sources that this year’s transpacific peak season had began earlier than usual, supporting stronger demand and, in turn, firmer freight rates. Importers are also pulling deliveries forward, it noted, partly in anticipation of rising fuel surcharges and partly because many US shippers face higher tariff bills later in the year.
Steady recovery
European imports, meanwhile, maintained its steady recovery, posting 7% growth across the first four months, with gains spread evenly across the region, CTS data shows.
Export performance continues to diverge by region. Asia remains the engine of global trade, with exports up 9.2% year to date. North America’s exports slipped 3.3%, while Sub‑Saharan Africa once again outperformed all regions with a 10.1% rise.
Asia-Europe trade for its part continued its remarkable run, with year‑to‑date volumes up 14.3%, April volumes up 12.3% year on year, and a 12.4% rise on March, according to CTS.
Box flows from the Asia to Sub‑Saharan Africa rose 16.6%, but this month they were overtaken by the Asia-South and Central America corridor, which surged 20.8% year on year. These emerging market lanes show no sign of demand softening, echoing the momentum seen throughout 2025.
Pricing trends reflect the same pattern of concentrated disruption. The CTS Global Price Index climbed 10 points to 89, compared with 78 a year earlier. Rate pressure is most acute on Middle East‑linked trades, where the Asia to Indian Sub‑Continent and Middle East index jumped to 137, an 18‑point rise in a single month, with Middle East rates alone up 50%.
Other major trades also saw increases: Europe-Asia rose to 44 points, Asia-Europe to 89, Asia–North America to 94, and Europe-North America to 96.
