TRAFFIC through the Strait of Hormuz has climbed to its highest level since the conflict began, but most of that growth is still being driven by Iran-linked trade, and transits remain far below normal levels.
Lloyd’s List tracked 72 transits of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt through the chokepoint last week, representing a 26% week-on-week increase in traffic.
Traffic volumes overall, however, are still down more than 90% compared to pre-war levels.
As more countries secure safe-passage agreements with Iran, several non-Iranian cargoes have started to make it through, however that growth remains comparatively limited.
Non-Iranian linked trade only accounted for a fifth of last week’s traffic.
Countries known to have negotiated some form of safe-passage agreement for vessels include: Iraq, Pakistan, Japan, China, India, Malaysia and Oman.
While the transits are still being negotiated on a case-by-case basis, government officials in contact with the Iranian process of approval report increasing clarity over which ships will be approved.
The process is now well established, requiring each vessel seeking clearance to place the request via the vessel’s agent in Iran.
Shipowners are required to provide documentation on ownership, management, financing, insurance, trading history of the vessel and charterer contracts to prove that the vessel has no US or Israel affiliation.
After all documentation has been cleared and the pre-approval is granted, a physical inspection may or may not be required.
Once the vessel has received the green light, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials provide a list of waypoints for the vessel to follow. In some instances an IRGC speed boat accompanies the vessel through the strait.
That process is starting see more vessels moving as governments, owners and insurers become accustomed to the evolving risk involved.
In addition to two India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers, last week saw the transit of two Omani VLCCs and one liquefied natural gas carrier, two Cosco-operated ultra-large boxships, a 5,466 teu containership owned by the French liner CMA CGM, and a Turkish suezmax laden with Iraq’s first crude export since the start of the war.
India, thus far, appears to have taken the lead in securing transits, with eight India-flagged LPG carriers exiting the Middle East Gulf, along with several ships carrying India-bound cargoes. The latter includes a US-sanctioned very large gas carrier that delivered Iranian LPG to New Mangalore last week, likely taking advantage of the recent US sanctions waiver amid a sharp decline in India’s LPG imports in March.
Lloyd’s List also tracked a bulk carrier exiting the MEG, sailing ballast from Dammam, Saudi Arabia. It is now waiting off the coast of Oman, using its AIS to show Sohar as its next port of call.
The subtle diversification of the fleet sailing the Strait of Hormuz suggests more owners and operators are becoming comfortable seizing upon the Iranian traffic system to exit the conflict zone.
Those with ships stuck in the MEG do not have many options for moving vessels out safely.
Trump’s early March announcement on possible naval escorts never materialised, and more recently he has said allies should “go get your own oil”, in social media posts.
The UK hosted a meeting with more than 40 countries last week to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which ended with no firm agreement or plan on how to get traffic freely flowing through the chokepoint.
A virtual follow-up meeting hosted by the UK was underway on Tuesday, involving: France, Germany, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and the United Arab Emirates.
For those opting to engage with Iran for permission to pass the Strait of Hormuz, it is not always smooth sailing.
At least eight vessels have reversed course on approach to the chokepoint in the past two weeks, according to vessel-tracking data.
Greek-operated 93,283 dwt bulker carrier Minoan Pioneer (IMO: 9471630) did a U-turn earlier today while sailing eastbound along the Tehran-approved corridor, via Larak Island.
Minoan Pioneer is currently approaching Larak Island for the second time and is attempting to exit the MEG after having delivered cargo to Iran’s port of Bandar Khomeini.
On March 31, a Russia-flagged 4,556 dwt general cargoship, Lada (IMO: 9194050) abruptly turned around on the approach to Larak Island.
It waited almost a week before it was able to pass through. The ship is currently sailing towards India with its destination as Kandla port.
LNG carriers Al Daayen (IMO: 9325702) and Rasheeda (IMO: 9443413), linked to the Qatar Gas Transport, similarly abandoned attempt their attempts to exit the MEG yesterday.
It is unclear if the ships were going to transit the Strait of Hormuz the normal way or via the IRGC-controlled Larak Island detour.
Just three vessels, those linked to Oman, can be tracked sailing along the typical route through the strait since March 15.
Oman’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to an emailed request from Lloyd’s List enquiring whether the passage of Dhalkut (IMO: 9888601), Habrut (IMO: 9500730) and Sohar LNG (IMO: 9210816) was coordinated with Iranian authorities.
However, the Foreign Ministry said a meeting was held with Iran on April 4 about possible options for “ensuring the smooth flow of transit” through the Strait of Hormuz in a post on X. This is just days after the tankers and LNG carrier transited the chokepoint.
All Strait of Hormuz transits are verified by Lloyd’s List Intelligence expert analysts using our AIS vessel-tracking data, advanced analytics and on-the-ground human intelligence to ensure even dark or GNSS-disrupted movements are captured.
