by Manal Barakat, SeaNewsEditor

In recent years, the global container fleet has seen a significant increase in capacity due to a surge in new ship orders.

According to Linerlytica, the containership orderbook has reached an unprecedented high of 10.4 million TEU, and the orderbook ratio increased to 31.7% of the fleet.

“The last time the orderbook ratio exceeded this level in 2004-2009, it ended in a decade-long supply overhang that took 10 years to clear,” writes Linerlytica.

Despite this, Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of German carrier Hapag-Lloyd, remains optimistic.

In a recent talk, he dismissed the frequent warnings of overcapacity, arguing that such predictions have been made for years, yet the container market has consistently defied these expectations.

“Let’s not forget that this imbalance has been predicted every single year that I have been in the industry, and especially in the last five or six years, which have been dominated by COVID and a couple of good years after that,” said Jansen.

In his view, the shipping industry should let go of the notion that a balance between ship supply and freight demand is necessary. He believes that when the market tightens, companies will be able to reduce capacity by scrapping older ships.

Jansen said, “We have learned that something unexpected always happens and that we actually need the capacity to keep supply chains flowing.”

Although Hapag-Lloyd's CEO recognises that overcapacity could emerge in the future, he remains confident that this will not lead to a major crisis within the shipping industry.