by Lloyd's List

28 May 2025 (Lloyd's List) - HAPAG-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen says container volumes are on course to record growth in 2025 despite analyst projections for a marginal drop in overall seaborne box trade for the year.

Off the back of a strong first quarter and news of a partial trade truce between the US and China, Habben Jansen said there was a much more positive outlook for the sector.

“The numbers so far available until March are actually pretty good. I think a lot of people thought that after 6%+ growth last year, things would be a lot worse,” he said on a trade briefing organised by the Hamburg-based carrier.

Jansen noted that year-to-date, or at least through the first quarter, volumes across the industry were up 4.2% on last year, and while April was expected to have turned out a “little bit weaker”, the liner sector had seen an uptick in demand in May once more.

“I would still expect us to see decent growth in the second quarter. Whereas many of the analysts today would predict that there’s not going to be any growth in 2025 I personally think that’s a little bit on the negative side, as it seems that we’re certainly going to close the first half year with actually quite decent growth.”

He admitted that the decision between China and the US to at least temporarily reduce reciprocal tariffs to “somewhat more reasonable levels” had sent bookings from China through the roof, with goods previously held back now being transported. However, he said it is too early to say whether this development is going to lead to a “big cargo rush”.

Hapag-Lloyd, as with other carriers, has quickly looked to move as much tonnage as viable to the transpacific to cope with accelerated demand since the pausing of tariffs. Earlier this week, the German carrier announced that it was to launch a fresh service to Long Beach from Xiamen via Busan in partnership with its Gemini Cooperation partner Maersk.

Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd also set sail with two additional loaders, one to the US west coast in the form of a panamax class vessel (5,000 teu) and another to the US east coast of around 8,000 teu.

“We now need to see over the upcoming couple of weeks what is going to happen, and how much of that cargo rush is going to remain,” said Habben Jansen.

This, he said, will hinge on future discussions and what is agreed between the US and China in the weeks ahead.

While Habben Jansen said that it is difficult to judge what will happen in the second half of the year, he further reiterated that 0% volume growth is certainly pessimistic given the first quarter.

Jansen was speaking 120 days since the launch of its new Gemini Cooperation vessel sharing agreement with Maersk.

Habben Jansen said the agreement was “so far, so good”, highlighting how the pair had stuck to their promise of 90% reliability under the vessel sharing agreement.

He was further encouraged in how Gemini had ensured that Hapag-Lloyd’s volumes in the first quarter had grown above the market at 9%.

“That [more volumes] was the intention when we started up [with Gemini]. We knew that we needed to attract more volumes to fill those ships, also because we lose fewer sailings as we don’t do blank sailings, as we used to do. And we sail on time, which basically means that we can use the ships more often. It’s very nice to see that also reflected in the [volume] numbers, and hopefully we’ll see more of that as we move into Q2,” he said.

Meanwhile, Habben Jansen also revealed that the carrier’s stance on a return to the Red Sea remains unchanged, stating that there is still no clear indication it can ensure the safety of its vessels and crew.

“We’ve always said that we will only return to the Red Sea if we believe that it’s safe and it’s also going to remain safe for a long period of time,” he said.

“If we go back then we will have to do that step by step, as we would like to avoid chaos in the Mediterranean and in Europe in particular, and to a lesser extent, on the east coast of the US.

“Right now, we do not see any signs that it is going to be and remain safe in the near future. And that also means that in terms of our planning, we, for now, continue to plan with sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.”