by Lloyd's List
5 June 2025 (Lloyd's List) - THE containership newbuilding orderbook has reached a record 9.7m teu of capacity as orders by container line operators and tonnage providers have surged this year.
More orders are in the pipeline for operation with leading carriers for vessels of above 12,000 teu, while additional newbuilding contracts are expected to be placed for ships of below 5,000 teu.
“The appetite for newbuildings has reached unprecedented levels as the backlog of newbuilding containerships has expanded to an all-time high of 9.7m teu,” said Braemar container market analyst Jonathan Roach.
Since the beginning of the year, some 2m teu of boxship capacity was ordered alone to boost the newbuilding orderbook to a 15-year high, 31.1% of the existing fleet in service.
“While concerns around oversupply remain, clearly fleet renewal and fleet modernisation have taken precedence,” noted Roach.
Further orders are in the pipeline to boost the newbuilding backlog even further than its current record high level.
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd is believed to be in discussions with shipyards in China and South Korea for up to 12 neo-panamax boxships of 13,000 teu and eight 16,000 teu units.
They would add to a total of 24 boxships, of 9,200 teu and 16,800 teu, which the Hamburg-headquartered container line operator contracted in November 2024 from two Chinese shipbuilders.
Also in the market for boxship newbuildings is Singapore-based operator Ocean Network Express. It is rumoured to be about to sign a letter of intent with South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for 12 16,000 teu boxships, for delivery in 2028 and 2029.
Other orders in the pipeline include vessels of between 1,900 teu and 5,000 teu for several tonnage providers, which are expected to be ordered from Chinese shipbuilders.
Meanwhile, Netherlands-headquartered refrigerated cargo specialist Seatrade is understood to have signed a letter of intent for a new series of 2,800 teu boxships, with high reefer capacity, at China’s Huanghai Shipbuilding.
This year has seen growing interest in the ordering of mid-sized containerships and regional feeder-type tonnage, as orders in the past few years have been dominated by ships of above 10,000 teu.
“Interest in smaller boxships has grown markedly and we estimate that 55% of vessels ordered in 2025 are sized up to 9,999 teu. This compares to 50% in 2023 and 48% in 2024,” Roach said.
“This trend reflects the need to refresh smaller vessel segments, particularly in light of carbon abatement compliance requirements.”
With the newbuilding backlog having hit unprecedented levels, the potential for vessel capacity oversupply is growing — especially if container line operators return to utilising the Suez Canal.
“Our base case estimates suggest an average oversupply of 26% annually from 2026 to 2030. However, with the likely implementation of more slow steaming, due to carbon abatement measures, this figure could decline to around 22%,” said Roach.
When adjusting for continued Red Sea avoidance, that oversupply would be closer to only 7% per annum.
“This artificially constrained environment is supporting a tight charter market, further amplified by factors such as vessel maintenance, alliance reshuffling and port congestion,” said Roach.
The recycling of elderly ships will help to abate oversupply. There are some 1,500 containerships in service of 20 years or older. Should boxship recycling stay at its current very low levels, then the 20-year-old-plus fleet will reach 2,700 ships by 2030.
“The ageing fleet profile presents a clear opportunity for fleet renewal, especially as environmental regulations tighten and fuel efficiency becomes critical to cost management,” said Roach.
