21 February 2024 (Lloyd's List) - RED Sea disruptions and diversions appear to have stabilised with commercial shipping traffic through the narrow Bab el Mandeb chokepoint registering a week-on-week rise of 7%. This uptick was led by increased numbers of smaller containerships entering the regional market to replace suspended calls from larger lines.
This is the first week-on-week rise seen since Houthi attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden escalated in December, data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows. Data counts all vessels over 10,000 dwt.
However, significant drops in overall traffic were still registered for Suez Canal transits for the week ending February 18, which are 61% below normal levels*, and 5% down over the past week, when measured by deadweight.
There was also a new low for Suez transits, when measured by vessel number, at 205 transits, down 57% on normal periods and a year-on-year drop of 48%.
Bulk carriers last week took their steepest weekly plunge with 79 transits through the Suez compared with 105 over the prior seven-day period, and the lowest seen since monitoring began.
This vessel type had previously been the most resilient to diversions. Escalating Houthi attacks on US- and UK-affiliated bulk carriers over the past three weeks has moved the needle for bulk carrier charterers, who are now more amenable to Cape of Good Hope diversions.
The largest year-on-year drops for vessel activity in the regions remain for the category of liquefied natural gas carriers. No vessel of this type has been seen transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait since at least January 22. Just five gas carriers went via the Suez for the week ending February 18.
Bab el Mandeb transits gained 7% in ship number and were stable by deadweight, while active average daily Red Sea vessels registered a smaller rise, to 379 from 373.
This reflected the rise in containerships, from 35 to 43 ships, even as numbers were 68% lower than average. Smaller containerships, many affiliated to China, are filling the void left by larger carriers on east-west routes that have avoided the Red Sea as they divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
*normal levels indicate three-week average prior to Red Sea disruption in weeks 45-48 of 2023
