THE global containership orderbook is approaching the 40% mark—a level not seen since it fell back from its post-2008 peak—as a wave of newbuilding orders increasingly flows to second-tier Chinese shipyards.

The orderbook-to-fleet ratio has reached a post-2010 high of 39%, according to shipping consultancy Linerlytica, with a total backlog of 1,630 vessels accounting for 13.3m teu.

The ratio has risen sharply from 31.7% last August, though it remains well below the peak of more than 50% seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

With most of China's tier-one shipyards fully booked through the end of 2028, recent orders have largely been secured by smaller yards still able to offer 2028 deliveries, Linerlytica said. Those classified by the firm as "Tier 2" now account for around 25% of the total orderbook by vessel count.

Among them, Shandong Huanghai Shipbuilding and Taizhou Sanfu top the orderbook rankings with a combined backlog of 110 vessels. Taizhou Sanfu recently secured an order for ten 6,200 teu ships from Global Ship Lease, with deliveries scheduled for 2028–2030.

Meanwhile, capacity scheduled for delivery in 2028 has already reached a record 5.4m teu, with slots still available at some tier-two facilities, according to Linerlytica.

Smaller ships lead recent ordering, yet the book stays big-ship heavy

Ordering held steady through the recent Posidonia week, with no major change to recent market sentiment, according to shipbrokers. Activity remained concentrated around feeders and 6,000 teu projects.

Among the recently revealed deals. Greek owner Venergy Maritime declared options for two 1,900 teu vessels at CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding at around $30m per ship with delivery scheduled for 2029. The order brings the owner's series at the yard to eight units.

CMA CGM was separately reported to have contracted a series of 6,000 teu vessels at Hengli Heavy Industry. Details have yet to be disclosed, but the project is rumored to comprise six to eight units and would mark the first major newbuilding order from a leading European liner in 2026.

Hengli, which emerged from the restructuring of STX Dalian and only began operations in January 2023, has quickly established itself as a top-tier player on the strength of its substantial capacity and a rapidly expanding orderbook. Once confirmed, the CMA CGM order would push the yard's container vessel backlog beyond 60 units.

"While overall contracting activity remains moderate, we continue to see firm projects in both the mid-size and larger segments, with a number expected to firm up before the summer holidays," MB Shipbrokers said in a recent report.

The existing orderbook, however, remains heavily concentrated in larger tonnage. Vessels of 7,600 teu and above carried an orderbook-to-fleet ratio of 49% in the first quarter of 2026, according to Maritime Strategies International, compared with 16% for mid-size ships of 3,900 to 7,600 teu and 17% for smaller feeders.

Diversions seen as a "new normal"?

The ballooning order backlog has fuelled industry concerns over potential overcapacity, particularly from 2027 onward, when newbuilding deliveries are set to accelerate and if Red Sea diversions—which have absorbed significant capacity—come to an end.

Speaking during last week's Lloyd's List Intelligence China Day forum in Shanghai, an executive at a large Chinese ship-leasing firm said the container market is supported in the short term by a "diversion dividend," with current rates driven more by elevated ton-mile demand from geopolitical shocks than by traditional supply and demand.

That makes box-ship assets attractive for tactical participation, he added.

Over the medium term, however, supply will become the core variable.

With large containerships accounting for a high share of the orderbook and clustering for delivery after 2027, the end of rerouting would release capacity that weighs on freight rates and asset values, the executive said.

Mid-size vessels were described as relatively stable, while feeders—where high fleet age points to clear renewal demand—were seen as offering more structural opportunity.

Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical turmoil appears to be convincing some in the industry that diversions are becoming a structural feature of global shipping rather than a temporary disruption.

Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics, which recently announced a Yuan3bn ($442m) convertible bond fundraising plan to finance ten 1,800 teu and eight 6,000 teu vessels ordered this year—mostly at second-tier Chinese yards-- pointed to two structural shifts.

Recurring threats to key waterways have increased diversion demand and encouraged the use of safe ports as transshipment hubs served by smaller feeder vessels, the company said, while escalating trade friction has accelerated supply-chain fragmentation, channeling cargo toward emerging routes in Southeast Asia and the India-Pakistan region.

Zhonggu expects structural demand to emerge for short- and medium-haul international routes as major economies prioritise supply-chain redundancy and defensive restocking.