by Lloyd's List

6 September (Lloyd's List) - GLOBAL container traffic entered the second half of the year as it left the first, maintaining a steady growth curve through July.

The latest figures published by Container Trades Statistics, which collates official data from the major lines, showed that carriers moved 15.7m teu in the most recent reporting month, up 5.6% on July of last year. Year-to-date box growth through the first seven months of 2024 stood at 7.1%.

However, on a month-on-month basis figures were largely unchanged, down slightly on June 2024, with volumes essentially flatlining since May.

Similarly unchanged was the principal driver of box growth in 2024 so far, the Asia-North America trade.

The strength of headhaul transpacific cargoes showed no sign of let up in July, as volumes continued to be buoyed not only by the robustness of the US economy but also shippers frontloading ahead of potential tariffs. CTS data showed a jump in July of 18.1% on the corresponding month of 2023, elevating year-on-year growth for 2024 to 17.7%.

While volumes on the transpacific are a significant improvement on last year, box numbers must also be considered in the context of 2023 coming off the back of a post Covid-boom in demand. Compare year-to-date figures to that of 2022 and volumes on the Far East-North America were actually down 2.6%. 

In the case of Asia-Europe, volumes continued to track above 2023 in July, climbing 6.4%, while year-to-date growth on the trade stood at 6.7%,

“The increase in cargoes is primarily in northern Europe and the west Mediterranean regions, with east Mediterranean flatlining for the first seven months of 2024 as congestion and transit times remain high,” said CTS.

With mainline east-west trades continuing where they left off in the first half of the year, attention now will focus on whether the volume growth trend will be sustained into August, or if the pre-peak season surge was in fact the peak.

Initial indications are that on the transpacific trade at least, demand has remained strong. 

Last month, Lloyd’s List reported how data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MXSOCAL) indicated equally brisk business in and out of the port majors in San Pedro Bay, Los Angeles and Long Beach.

Spot rates — often a barometer for demand, however, have weakened on the major east-west trades in recent weeks, with the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index showing prices falling gradually since early July.

This could, of course, be the impact of new capacity on the water rather than a downward swing in demand.

The health of volume demand in July did, however, translate into a significant upturn in the CTS Global Price Index, which combines both spot and contract rates.

Far East-Europe rates helped provide impetus in light of the elevated prices stemming from the Red Sea crisis, while transpacific rates too registered “strong upward movement” amid a shortage of boxes out of China, according to CTS.

The index nudged up 17 points in July to 118 points, representing it highest level in more than 18 months.

“The price index has clearly responded to movements in the spot market in specific markets but for the moment contract rates are holding the overall increase to more modest levels in trades out of the Far East,” said CTS.