CHINA’s container export machine is not merely withstanding tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation and manufacturing diversification. It is growing through them.
Trade and shipping data from the first half of 2026 show China-linked container flows expanding again, challenging expectations that tariffs and shifting supply chains would steadily erode the country’s role in global trade.Instead, China’s position is evolving. Manufacturing is spreading across a broader Asian production network, carriers are adding capacity into emerging regional markets and Chinese exporters are shipping increasingly sophisticated products across a wider range of trades.
What is emerging is not a retreat from China, but a larger trade ecosystem built around it.
Container movements from China to the US increased 3.2% year on year to just over 5m teu in the first half of 2026, according to Container Trades Statistics. Volumes to Mexico rose 4.8%, while shipments to the Indian subcontinent increased almost 16%.
Those gains come despite continuing tariff uncertainty and political pressure from Washington to reduce dependence on Chinese imports. After years of stockbuilding, transhipment and supply chain restructuring, direct China-US volumes are rising once again.
The trend does not suggest diversification has failed. Rather, it highlights China’s continued role as the central hub of global manufacturing networks.
Regional expansion gathers pace
The strongest growth remains within Asia. CTS data shows Chinese container exports to Malaysia increased 25% during the first half of 2026, while flows to Vietnam rose 10.9% and shipments to Thailand nearly 10%. Trade with the Indian subcontinent expanded by almost 16%.
Carriers have responded rapidly. Nominal capacity from China to Vietnam increased almost 30% during the first six months of the year, while capacity into India and Thailand has more than tripled over the past 12 months, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data. Capacity to Malaysia rose more than 10%.
The scale of that expansion reflects the changing geography of China-linked trade. Southeast Asia is increasingly operating as an extension of China’s industrial base, undertaking assembly and processing activities while remaining dependent on Chinese machinery, components and intermediate goods.
The trend has been building for several years. Between 2023 and 2025, Chinese containerised exports increased more than 40% to India, 36% to Vietnam and 37% to Thailand. Rather than replacing Chinese production, these economies have become additional stages within supply chains that still originate in China.
In practice, the China+1 strategy has produced expansion rather than displacement. Labour-intensive and tariff-sensitive activities may have moved elsewhere, but China continues to dominate the supply of capital goods, industrial inputs and an increasing share of high-value manufacturing.
Customs data reinforces the strength of these regional links. China’s exports to Asean rose 25.1% year on year during the first seven months of 2026, making the bloc China’s largest export market ahead of both the US and European Union. Exports to Vietnam increased 27.5%, while Malaysia and Thailand recorded gains of 30.5% and 31.4%, respectively.
These are not isolated bilateral gains. They point to an increasingly integrated regional trade system in which China exports both finished goods and the inputs required by factories elsewhere in Asia.
For container shipping, that generates additional layers of demand. Components are increasingly moving between multiple production centres before finished products are exported to Europe or North America, creating more containerised movements even when final demand remains unchanged.
US trade proves more resilient than expected
The continued strength of direct US-bound traffic is equally significant.
Between 2023 and 2025, China-US container volumes declined only 3.4%, despite successive rounds of tariffs and efforts by importers to diversify sourcing. That modest decline was more than offset by rising volumes from Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, where US-bound shipments increased by more than one third.
The increase in direct China-US traffic during the first half of 2026 suggests Chinese exporters are recovering volume even as alternative supply chains remain in place.
Customs data shows the value of Chinese exports to the US increased 2.6% during the first seven months of the year, including a 17% year-on-year increase in July. Exports to the US totalled $257.9bn between January and July.
Carrier deployment mirrors that resilience. Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show capacity from China to the US and Mexico increased more than 13% during the first half of 2026.
Tariffs have undoubtedly altered the structure of China’s trade, but they have not produced the contraction many anticipated. Some cargo continues to move via alternative manufacturing and logistics hubs, yet a substantial share still departs directly from Chinese ports.
Mexico has emerged as a key manufacturing and logistics platform for Chinese companies seeking proximity to the US market, while Vietnam remains one of the principal beneficiaries of supply chain diversification.
Technology changes the export mix
The story is becoming increasingly driven by technology-intensive exports rather than traditional consumer goods.
China’s latest customs figures show strong growth in hi-tech, mechanical and electrical exports as investment in artificial intelligence, automation and energy-transition infrastructure boosts demand.
Exports increased 23.9% year on year in value terms during July, while imports rose 27.5%, leaving a monthly trade surplus of $112.5bn. Hi-tech product exports increased 40.7%, with semiconductor exports nearly doubling in value.
Exports of industrial robots and 3D printers rose more than 50% in July, exceeding the 39% growth recorded during the first half and accounting for almost 60% of the month’s export growth.
Mechanical and electrical exports reached Yuan11.12tn ($1.65tn) during the first seven months of the year, an increase of 21.2%, accounting for nearly two thirds of total exports.
Within that category, electric vehicle exports increased 71.2%, lithium batteries rose 35.8%, wind turbines gained 34.8% and ship exports increased 32.7%. The value of 3D printer exports more than doubled.
The shift carries significant implications for container shipping. China is no longer relying primarily on low-cost manufacturing growth. Increasingly, export demand is being driven by structural investment in computing power, automation, electrification and renewable energy infrastructure.
Demand linked to AI development is proving particularly strong. Chinese exports of memory integrated circuits and memory components increased 218.5% and 121.6%, respectively, in the first half, together accounting for 6.5% of total exports.
Growth extends beyond traditional markets
China’s export growth is also becoming more geographically diversified. During the first seven months of 2026, exports increased 16.7% to the EU, 14% to the UK, 20.6% to India, 25% to Africa and 13% to Latin America.
Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached $2.22tn over the same period, with exports rising 19%. Exports to members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership increased 23.4%.
While political attention remains focused on China-US relations, much of the recent growth in container trade has been driven by expanding commercial ties across Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
There is little indication that momentum is fading. By the halfway point of 2026, average throughput growth across China’s 10 largest container port complexes had reached 5.5%, equivalent to an additional 7m teu compared with the previous year.
That performance is notable given the scale involved. In 2025, China’s 10 largest ports, excluding Hong Kong, collectively added 16.7m teu, more than the annual throughput handled by DP World’s flagship Jebel Ali facility before the Middle East Gulf crisis. China also accounted for 23 entries in the latest Lloyd’s List One Hundred Ports ranking and more than 40% of total throughput represented in the table.
Taken together, the data suggest China’s container trade is expanding rather than fragmenting. Manufacturing networks may be becoming more geographically dispersed, but the country remains the principal production and export hub.
Far from loosening China’s grip on global container trade, diversification is helping build a larger, more complex system around it.
