by Lloyd's List
11 September 2024 (Lloyd's List) - THE clock is ticking. A potentially disastrous strike at US east and Gulf Coast ports may be just three weeks away.
Containers loaded today in Asia and bound for key gateways like New York will arrive after the October 1 deadline, when the International Longshoremen’s Association has vowed to strike if a new contract agreement isn’t reached.
Data on US imports underscores the enormity of the potential disruption, which could occur just a month before the vote on the US presidency and could spawn massive ship queues reminiscent of the Covid era.
After all the misplaced angst over a possible strike at west coast ports in 2023, the consequences of a shutdown on the other coastlines would be even more severe.
East and Gulf coast ports account for half of total US imports measured in teu and more than half measured in cargo tonnes.
A west coast shutdown would have overwhelmingly impacted US imports from Asia, but not other source regions. In contrast, a shutdown of east and Gulf coast ports will not only impact Asian cargoes, it will cripple US imports from Europe and Latin America, with shippers having few options to reroute.
‘Cataclysmic to marine supply chains’
According to data compiled by independent analyst John McCown, the top five ports on the east and Gulf coasts (Houston, Savannah, New York/New Jersey, Norfolk, Charleston) imported 6,953,037 teu in January-July, up 12% from the same period last year.
During the first seven months of 2024, the east and Gulf coast ports handled 50.8% of total imports measured in teu through the country’s top 10 ports. The share for the east and Gulf coast ports was higher in January-July 2023, at 52.7%, with the year-on-year decline widely attributed to shippers preparing for the strike.
“The impact of a coastwide strike across all east and Gulf coast ports would be pronounced even if short-lived,” McCown told Lloyd’s List on Tuesday.
“Those US ports, by my calculation, are linked to trade lanes representing 16.2% of worldwide teu-miles. The immediate effect would be as if that much capacity was removed.
That is twice as much capacity as was removed due to longer voyages resulting from the Red Sea situation.
“Any shifting to West Coast ports, representing 11.8% of teu-miles, or non-US North American ports, representing 10.4% of teu-miles, could quickly overwhelm those ports and cause more congestion.
“The impact of such a strike of any duration would quickly spread across all container systems and be cataclysmic to maritime supply chains worldwide. Customers who move $3.2bn per day of goods in containers across east and Gulf coast ports and $5.6bn per day across all US ports would feel the largest impact.”
On reports that US importers have heavily frontloaded shipments in preparation for the strike, McCown said, “I have not seen enough data to indicate that inventory levels have been built up enough where customers can absorb any strike without meaningful economic pain.”
He also warned: “Clearly the follow-on impacts of any such strike – including domestic production lines shutting down – will just grow exponentially the longer it lasts.”
Risks to imports from Asia, Europe, Latin America
Another import data set is compiled by the US Census Bureau, using customs declarations on tonnes of containerised imports. This data shows a higher share of total US imports for east and gulf coast ports – 63.9% in January-July 2024 and 66.6% in January-July 2023.
The disparity between the tonne and the teu import percentages relates to the higher density of cargo types brought through US east and gulf coast ports, explained Jason Miller, a freight economist and Michigan State University supply chain professor who compiles the Census Bureau import data.
In the first seven months of this year, 52% of containerised cargo tonne imports handled at east and Gulf coast ports arrived from Asia, 27% from Europe, and 21% from Latin America and other regions, according to Census Bureau data.
East and Gulf coast ports handled 51% of the total US import cargo tonnes from Asia in January-June. Miller told Lloyd’s List, “We see a mix of consumer and industrial goods [from Asia to the east and Gulf coasts]. Furniture is high on the list, and consumer goods like toys and bed linens. But we also see solar panels and a lot of motor vehicle parts and tires. We see building materials showing up as well, along with inputs going to manufacturing sectors.”
The strike scenario is much more acute for US imports from Europe. East and Gulf coast ports accounted for 90% of cargo tonnes from Europe imported to the US in January-July. Rerouting options for such shipments are extremely constrained, largely limited to eastern Canada.
The US east and Gulf coast import mix from Europe is much different than from Asia (bolstering the tonne share versus the teu share due to higher cargo density). US imports from Europe are much less manufactured-goods-centric than those from Asia. Instead, they are dominated by building supplies – plaster, ceramic tiles, stone and cement – and food and beverages: wine, beer, sauces, condiments and pasta.
The strike scenario for imports from Latin America is almost as dire as it is for Europe. The Census Bureau data shows that 83% of US cargo tonnes imported from non-Asian and non-European countries (primarily Latin America) year to date entered the country via east and Gulf coast ports.
One of the main cargo types from this region: produce requiring refrigerated transport. One of the largest US gateways for these cargoes is Philadelphia.
“There are a lot of bananas coming through these ports,” said Miller. Bananas are the second largest category of cargo imports measured in tonnes to east and Gulf coast ports year to date.
Produce like bananas would face great difficulty in the event of a strike, given that such cargo has time constraints, with bananas having a storage life of around four weeks.
One option for shipments from the west coast of South America could be to ship to Los Angeles/Long Beach, then traverse the country by truck. “It could have some interesting ultra-long-haul refrigerated truckload implications,” said Miller.
