by Lloyd's List
30 January 2025 (Lloyd's List) - SYRIA’s traceable maritime traffic has remained largely unchanged since the collapse of the Assad regime. Its evolution and growth will depend on how the lifting of a stringent decade-long sanctions regime plays out, and experts agree it will be a long process.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data there have been 20 traceable arrivals of cargo-carrying vessels this month.
This figure is higher than in previous years, with 14 callings recorded in both January 2023 and 2024, but is in line with traffic during busier months.
Analysts say the sanctions that have been imposed on Syria since the start of the civil war in 2011 are a factor in preventing growth and expansion in maritime trade.
“Syria has yet to be plugged back into global financial channels and this will take time,” said European Council on Foreign Relations senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais.
Even as sanctions are eased, with the EU saying this week that it will suspend certain restrictions, overcompliance will likely be an ongoing issue especially with the possibility of a sanctions snapback, Demarais adds.
Paolo Napolitano, head of Middle East & North Africa at Dragonfly Intelligence, a London-based company specialised in geopolitical and security intelligence, reiterates that it will be a long process lasting at least until the end of the year.
“Westerns countries have seemingly tied their lifting of sanctions to the new leadership in Syria taking concrete steps towards a democratic transition. And, as in all such transitions, this requires time and confidence building.”
Syria’s core trading partners have largely stayed the same under the new government, with most vessels arriving from Lebanon, Egypt and Türkiye.
There are only two notable changes to trading partners when assessing traceable callings data.
Vessel arrivals from Russia are absent from the January data, reflecting the strained relationship between Moscow and Damascus, while Saudi Arabia has emerged as a potential new market with two ships arriving to Latakia from Jeddah this month.
This is the first time ships can be tracked sailing directly from Saudi Arabia to Syria since at least January 2023.
Importantly, analysis of traceable shipping movements only reveals part of the picture, as much of Syria’s maritime trade takes place offline, a direct response to the many sanctions imposed against the country’s economy.
Market specialists acknowledge that under the Assad regime there was significant illicit trade flows from neighbouring economies, but the recent developments make it likely that trading patterns will evolve over the coming years.
“Assuming an easing of sanctions — likely over the next 12 to 18 months — new commercial ties will emerge with Lebanon, Jordan, and notably the Gulf Co-operation Council as the latter looks to expand their footprint in the market,” says Yasmina Zamel, MENA analyst at FrontierView, a global business intelligence and advisory firm for multinationals.
It is difficult to predict exactly how Syria’s maritime trade will evolve given it’s dependence on the reintegration of Syria’s economy into the global system, but right now no significant shifts are expected.
“Although some restrictions have been removed by the US, and soon Europe, for humanitarian reasons, my take is that risks remain high when it comes to trading with Damascus since a whole new governing system is still being introduced,” says Noam Raydan, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
