by Lloyd's List

3 July 2025 (Lloyd's List) - TRANSITS through the Suez Canal and Bab el Mandeb fell in the wake of Middle East turmoil that defined the month of June.

Cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt and most likely to be internationally trading, made 833 transits through the Suez Canal last month, a 7% drop from May.

Traffic through the Bab el Mandeb fell 3%, from 972 to 941.

The lowest number of weekly transits through the Bab el Mandeb was recorded between June 16 and June 22.

Israel launched its attack on Iran on June 13. There was speculation at the time that the Houthis may resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The Houthis made a statement on June 21 announcing their readiness to target US ships in the Red Sea if they participated in strikes on Iran, but no further threats were made, and no action was taken.

A ceasefire was reached between Israel and Iran on June 24.

The instability in the region has prevented the majority of the owners and operators that diverted from the Red Sea at the start of the crisis from returning.

“The Middle East isn’t the most stable environment at the best of times and less so at the moment,” said Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels.

“That means everybody has an excuse to continue with avoiding the Red Sea because nobody wants to be the first and everybody has adjusted to the situation.”

Previous Lloyd’s List investigations have revealed that ships are returning to the Red Sea, and even some larger owners and operators have restarted Bab el Mandeb transits over the last six months, although there has been no return en masse.

Control Risks director Cormac McGarry said some owners were positioning themselves for a future return to the Red Sea.

He said the potential for the situation to change rapidly was keeping people from implementing those plans, but companies were preparing to act quickly if the situation improved.

On June 30 the EU Naval Force’s Operation Aspides, which helps safeguard freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, downgraded its risk assessment for US-affiliated vessels to moderate.

The assessment is low for vessels not linked to the US or Israel.

Although traffic volumes through the Suez Canal and Bab el Mandeb fell in June the figures remain within the “new normal” range.

Transits for both chokepoints are down 58% on pre-crisis levels.