In a recent study, maritime intelligence firm Sea-Intelligence examined week-to-week fluctuations in deployed vessel capacity across major deep-sea trade lanes, using data from the Sea-Trade Capacity Outlook database.

The study assessed whether capacity offered on key routes has remained stable over time or has been affected by operational disruptions.

The analysis found that variability has generally increased across most major deep-sea trades during the past 14 years.

Variability across key trades

Among the routes reviewed, the Transpacific was the only major exception, recording a decline in variability between 2023 and 2025 before seeing a renewed increase in recent months.

On the Asia-North America trades, capacity fluctuations rose steadily from 2012 to 2023. Variability on East Coast services was typically slightly higher than on West Coast services.

Europe-related trades also showed a long-term increase in variability. According to Sea-Intelligence, Asia-North Europe services have followed an upward trend since 2016 despite periodic fluctuations.

On the Asia-Mediterranean trade, capacity remained relatively stable before the pandemic but subsequently moved onto a gradual upward trajectory, with variability exceeding that seen on North Europe services.

The study identified a similar pattern on Transatlantic routes. North Atlantic trades recorded a rising trend throughout the period analysed, while the most notable increase in South Atlantic variability occurred following pandemic-related disruptions.

Capacity variability highest in South America

While overall, the findings point to a deep-sea market that has become progressively more unstable over time, South America stood out as the region with the highest level of capacity variability.

Both Asia-East Coast South America and North Europe-East Coast South America trades showed sustained growth in fluctuations across the study period, although the trend appeared to level off somewhat during the past five years.

Comparing the most recent 52-week period across all major trades, Sea-Intelligence found that South American routes displayed the highest variability, while the Transpacific recorded the lowest.

The study noted that higher variability increases the likelihood of either capacity shortages or excess capacity in any given week, contributing to a less stable supply chain environment.