The world’s largest retail trade association, the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasts retail imports to fall in February to their lowest point in three years. The year-on-year drop is expected to reach 11.5% in January, 23% in February – the lowest drop since June 2020 – and 25.5% in March, according to the NRF. Together with consultancy services provider Hackett Associates, the Washington-based NRF published their Global Port Tracker, in which it claimed that the pandemic-driven surge was finally over. “Monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports has fallen below the 2 million TEU mark and should remain there through most of this spring,” said the report. On the other hand, retail sales are still on track, said the NRF. It even expects December figures to show a 6 to 8% growth compared to 2021 for both the full year and the holiday season. “Consumers are still spending and volumes remain high, but we’re not seeing the congestion at the docks and ships waiting to unload that were widespread this time a year ago,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. While the December retail trade figures are yet to be published, the latest global shipping report by Descartes revealed the US container imports data for December. The data shows that volumes are aligning with pre-pandemic levels and slowly approaching normality. Compared to December 2021, US import volumes were down 19.3% in December 2022. Industry experts believe inflation and recession are the top two factors that could negatively affect shipping in the upcoming months. However, the majority agrees that we are on the way to market normalcy. “After nearly three years of COVID-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.”