10 January 2023 (Lloyd's List) - US CONTAINER import figures are likely to remain below 2m teu a month at least for the first quarter, as the pandemic-driven surge in volumes finally eases. US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.78m teu in November, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 11.3% from October and down 15.8% from November 2021. It marked the lowest total since the 1.87m teu recorded in February 2021, which had been the only month in over two years to fall below 2m teu. “After nearly three years of Covid-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, who compiled the report for the NRF. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.” Imports fell to a four-year low of 1.37m teu in March 2020 as the pandemic prompted the temporary shutdown of much of the US economy. But cargo volumes soared after the shutdowns ended and pent-up consumer demand was unleashed, topping 2m teu by August 2020 and staying there all but one month until this winter. Ports have yet to report December figures, but the Global Port Tracker projects the month at 1.88m teu, down 10.1% year on year. That would bring 2022, which repeatedly broke monthly records in the first half of the year but saw significant drops in the second half, to an annual total of 25.7m teu, down 0.7% from the annual record of 25.8m teu set in 2021. Forecasts for the current quarter see volumes falling as low as 1.63m teu in February and not reaching the 2m teu mark again until May at the earliest. Despite the slowdown in cargo, retail sales are on track to meet NRF’s forecast of 6%-8% growth over 2021 for both the full year and the holiday season. “Ports have been stretched to their limits and beyond but are getting a break as consumer demand moderates amid continued inflation and high interest rates,” said NRF vice-president Jonathan Gold. “Consumers are still spending and volumes remain high, but we’re not seeing the congestion at the docks and ships waiting to unload that were widespread this time a year ago. It’s good to escape some of the pressure, but it’s important to use this time to address supply chain challenges that still need to be resolved like finalising the west coast port labour contract.” Flexport analysts noted that November figures for US imports were down 7.4%, with the largest fall being in consumer goods, down 12.7%.