by Lloyd's List

TEN years ago, saying geopolitics would reshape global trade and shipping flows sounded prescient. Today, it is common sense. What matters now is keeping track of the trendlines and knowing the latest developments.

Fresh containership port call data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence makes these shifts visible in concrete terms.

One of the clearest changes is the surge in direct calls from China to Southeast Asia’s major economies over the past two years. The trend reflects the deepening of the ‘China plus-one’ supply‑chain strategy, driven by both geopolitics and costs.

These emerging economies are increasingly showing up on ‘made in’ labels for goods bound for Western markets. Yet they remain heavily dependent on China for raw materials, components, technology — and, to an even greater extent, investment.

This dynamic is fuelling the growth of intra‑Asian trade and shipping routes. The trend has become especially pronounced this year, turbocharged by US president Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

During the first seven months of 2025, direct port calls from China to Vietnam rose 22% year on year, following a 10% increase for full‑year 2024 versus 2023.

Monthly calls began climbing sharply in March, surpassing 300 per month — a record level that coincides with the escalation of the US-China tariff war earlier this year.

Before the two countries reached a truce in mid-May, tariffs they imposed on each other had climbed into triple digits, sharply increasing US importers’ search for alternative sourcing. Some Chinese goods were even reportedly rerouted through Vietnam and other countries before being re‑exported to the US.

Meanwhile, Trump’s universal ‘reciprocal tariffs’ plan announced in April spurred heavy frontloading, as shippers rushed to hedge against uncertainty. This wave artificially boosted Southeast Asian shipments to the US — and, at the same time, drove up their imports from China.

Carriers have been quick to seize the opportunity. A senior Cosco executive told investors in late August that its services from Thailand and Vietnam to the US west coast have added extra calls at Ningbo and Nansha on the backhaul trade, “partly to handle local cargo and partly to facilitate supply chain shifts”.

From January to July, direct boxship calls from China to Thailand rose 18.3%, while calls to Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines jumped 65.7%, 38.8% and 21%, respectively.

These figures align closely with Chinese customs data: exports to Asean countries grew 13.5% year on year in US dollar terms, with Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia all recording growth above 20%.

Beyond Asia: Africa rising

Southeast Asia is not the only rapidly growing market. Chinese exports to Africa surged 24.5% over the same period.

Although direct China-Africa shipping services remain relatively limited, port call data still captures part of this growth.

Direct calls from China to Djibouti, for example, rose from zero in 2023 to 26 in 2024 — a level already matched during just the first seven months of 2025.

Supported by Chinese investment, Djibouti has become a critical linchpin for East Africa’s logistics chains, with the Red Sea crisis further inflating throughput.

“China has been one of the biggest investors in Africa for many years,” said Jayendu Krishna, head of Drewry Maritime Advisors. “We’ve done many studies for the big Chinese giants, and these companies continue to look for venues of investment.”

China–US rivalry

By contrast, China’s exports to the US fell 12% in value during the first seven months of this year. Data from supply chain technology firm Descartes also shows America’s reliance on direct imports from China is slipping.

From January to July, overall US container imports rose 3.6% year on year to 16.5m teu. But volumes from China dropped more than 5% to 5.6m teu, despite a sharp rebound last month after Washington and Beijing paused tariffs and backlogged orders were released.

“Without a deeper tariff rollback or broader trade agreement, China’s share of US containerised trade may face renewed pressure,” noted Jackson Wood, a director at Descartes.

Curiously, direct port calls from China to the US rose 12.6% during the same period. But several factors could explain this paradox.

Some vessels originating in Southeast Asia stop at major Chinese ports before heading to the US.

Additionally, e‑commerce demand and freight premiums from tariff disruptions have drawn in non‑traditional transpacific carriers, offering faster services with smaller ships.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, the average vessel size on China-US calls fell to 7,534 teu in January-July 2025, down from 8,255 teu a year earlier.

Still, US demand is expected to weaken through the rest of the year.

“The tariff regime settling at 15%-20% for most of the region outside China will squeeze producers, narrow supply‑chain margins and curb US demand,” the Economist Intelligence Unit warned in a recent report.

While frontloading temporarily boosted volumes, June’s economic data signals the trend could be reversing. The EIU expects Asian export growth to weaken significantly by late 2025 and into 2026.

The National Retail Federation projects total US container import volumes in 2025 will drop 5.6% year on year, with imports over the remaining five months down 17.5%.

What’s next?

The outcome of US-China trade negotiations will remain the single biggest variable shaping flows. For now, Southeast Asian exporters retain a relative advantage, Krishna noted.

“US tariffs on Chinese goods are about 54%, compared with around 20% on imports from Vietnam, Indonesia and most other south Asian countries. That roughly 30‑point gap suggests Chinese producers will likely remain incentivised to relocate.”

Yet Washington’s efforts to close loopholes — such as threats of 40% tariffs on Southeast Asia nations for rerouted goods, or pressure on Mexico to impose duties on Chinese imports — could complicate relocation.

“You’ll see companies pursuing all kinds of avenues to diversify supply chains,” said Vang Jensen, global head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, during a recent Hapag-Lloyd webinar.

“People are really tariff shopping right now. Jordan, Tanzania, Kenya and Ghana are becoming red hot as potential sourcing origins for the garment industry.”

Further diversification may help spread tariff risk, but it also erodes economies of scale, raising costs and lowering efficiency — especially for smaller companies, Krishna cautioned.

Another critical question is whether global trade — at least containerised trade — can stay buoyant with a reduced role for the US.

Some shipping executives remain optimistic.

“While China’s exports to the US are declining, shipments to emerging markets are showing a clear upward trend,” Wu Yu, managing director of Cosco Shipping Ports, told reporters this week.

Wu added the company would continue investing overseas, focusing on Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.

But the sustainability of the growth is uncertain. A case in point: if US demand falters, Southeast Asian exports could also suffer, which will then reduce imports for intermediate goods from China.

“Just because US‑bound trade falls, it doesn’t mean the rest of the world will pick up the slack,” Krishna warned. “A more likely scenario I think is overall demand coming under downward pressure.”

Of course, whether Trump might chicken out again once Americans start to feel the pain of tariff‑driven inflation is another major uncertainty, he added.