by Lloyd's List
WITH tariff deals set to be signed between the US and China, and the US and Vietnam, industry players will be keen to see how international trade flows could change, given significant investments in the China Plus One strategy.
Tariffs on China, which were initially implemented during US President Donald Trump’s first term, forced manufacturers to look elsewhere to set up factories producing goods for exports to the US.
The Association of South East Asian Nations region became a hotbed for these factories.
But new tariffs announced on Southeast Asian countries this year have stirred the pot, giving cause for concern for manufacturing assets in Asean countries, particularly Vietnam.
Shipbroking firm MB Shipbrokers last week noted a strong rise in exports from Vietnam, following the pivot by manufacturers to relocate their manufacturing hubs.
It saw Vietnam’s total export volumes rise 14% from January to August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.
In August 2025, export volumes surpassed 700,000 tonne equivalent units. This was a record high for the country and an increase of 7.2% on the year.
MB Shipbrokers also noted a 19.4% rise in exports from Vietnam to North America on the year, with exports to the US rising 29%, 26% and 28% year on year in March, May and June, respectively, of this year.
The US and Vietnam are expected to finalise a trade agreement in the coming weeks, following Trump’s meeting with Asean leaders.
The US is set to maintain its 20% reciprocal tariff rate. But some exceptions, which have yet to be laid out, could be made to levy 0% reciprocal tariffs on certain goods.
Non-tariff barriers will also be addressed as part of the trade deal.
Maritime freight data analytics firm Xeneta remains cautious about Vietnam’s and the wider Asean region’s continued export growth on the back of the 20% tariffs.
Xeneta noted a 12.8% increase in total exports out of Asean countries year on year from January to June this year. Exports to the US also grew by 21% on the year.
“The sweeping global tariffs of 2025 may have undermined [the China Plus One] strategy to an extent, but it remains the case that shippers must still strive for as much flexibility in supply chains as possible,” senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll said in Xeneta’s 2026 outlook.
In other trading lanes, China has found a new home in Europe to absorb lost exports to the US resulting from high tariffs.
Xeneta noted that Chinese exports to North America fell by 777,000 teu year on year between January and July this year. But exports from China to Europe were up by 790,000 teu.
