by Manal Barakat, SeaNewsEditor
Market experts warn of a potential overcapacity approaching the shipping market as the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs come into effect.
They claim that demand could slow down amidst the delivery of multiple newbuildings, making the market outlook for next year uncertain.
The US has reached several agreements with key economies, including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, reducing tariff levels and providing some market optimism.
However, a Linerlytica report mentioned that the tariffs, despite being lower than initially announced, could negatively impact global demand.
Based on the tariff developments, Linerlytica estimates that the global container throughput growth for 2025 will be around 2.6%.
This is attributed to factors such as first-half cargo front-loading, reduced US tariff rates, improved financial markets, and fiscal stimulus from key countries.
But for 2026, the data intelligence firm believes growth could drop to 1.7% as the tariff impacts materialise.
However, given the current volatility in the container shipping market, uncertainty has become the only constant, with trends subject to rapid and unpredictable shifts.
Demand surges pre-tariff deadline
Meanwhile, the surge in demand for imports to the US before the tariff deadline was evident in the Port of Los Angeles.
While the port experienced volatile cargo volumes in May, as imports plunged by 19%, demand bounced in June and July.
News reports highlighted that the port anticipates July to be its busiest month on record, with 107 ships arriving.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles Gene Seroka, said, “We’re sitting here with 107 ships that came to LA in the month of July. It will be our best on record, all front-loaded cargo coming in early.”
The surge in arrivals is attributed to companies expediting shipments to avoid higher tariffs expected after the 8 August deadline, followed by an anticipated drop-off in volumes.
The port's fluctuating volumes reflect broader uncertainties affecting global supply chains, as businesses adjust buying patterns and inventory levels in response to ongoing tariff changes and trade tensions.
