by Lloyd's List
9 June 2025 (Lloyd's List) - AS PREDICTED, US containerised imports on May were hammered by the unprecedented 145% tariff on Chinese goods enacted by US president Donald Trump.
Imports are expected to rebound in June and July after Trump’s decision to bring China tariffs down to 30%. Yet with tariffs still historically high, the National Retail Federation’s forecast for the coming peak season is much weaker than last year’s.
According to data from Descartes released on Monday, the US imported 2,177,453 teu of containerised goods in May, down 10% month on month (m/m) and down 7% year on year (y/y). It was Descartes’ lowest monthly tally since March 2024.
May’s decline was mostly driven by falling shipments from China.
US imports declined by 232,918 teu m/m overall, while US imports from China fell by 167,121 teu, equating to 72% of the total m/m decline.
US imports from China sank 21% m/m to 637,001 teu in May, the lowest monthly total since March 2023. According to Descartes, this was the sharpest m/m decline since March 2020, when China was in its initial Covid lockdown.
China’s share of total US containerised imports fell to just 29% last month, down from 40% in January.
Import data was also released on Monday by Global Port Tracker, which is published by the NRF and Hackett Associates. While Descartes uses customs filings and covers all US ports, Global Port Tracker uses official port data and estimates, and covers 13 US ports.
Global Port Tracker’s preliminary estimate is that the ports it covers handled 1.91m teu in May, down 13% m/m and 8% y/y. That would make it the lowest month for US imports since December 2023, and the first month with a y/y decline since September 2023.
The NRF expects volumes to bounce back in June and July, but not to last year’s levels.
“Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” said NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”
Global Port Tracker estimates that the ports it covers will handle 2.01m teu in June, up 5% m/m, and 2.13m teu in July, up 12% versus the May nadir.
Its forecasts have been swinging higher and lower throughout this year due to the on-again, off-again nature of Trump’s tariff policy.
Despite a more optimistic outlook as a result of the tariff reprieve, Global Port Tracker’s latest revision calls for much lower volumes than achieved last year. The latest forecast does not imply a demand rebound strong enough to sustain the recent surge in transpacific spot rates.
Global Port Tracker’s current estimate for June-October 2024 is down 14% y/y, even with the June-July bounce.
The new June-October import forecast is also down 1% from the same period in 2023, back when spot rates were particularly weak and liner capacity was lower. Global container shipping fleet capacity has grown by 17% since 3Q23, according to data from Maritime Strategies Inc.
Last week’s Shanghai-US west coast spot rate assessment, as measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, was more than triple the average rate in June-October 2023.
Prospects for the transpacific trade could be particularly weak at the tail end of this year.
“The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-back school season,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
