by Lloyd's List

16 January 2025 (Lloyd's List) - THE Gaza ceasefire announced on Wednesday night has not altered the threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea and will not spark an imminent return to Bab el Mandeb transits.

That was the view from senior naval officials and shipping executives on Thursday, as the industry weighed a tentative end to the war in Gaza against the continued threat to shipping posed by Houthi militants.

Shipping stocks in Asia and Europe fell slightly on Thursday on expectations that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas would normalise shipping in the Red Sea, cooling elevated container freight rates and weighing on profits. However that immediate investor response is premature, according to shipowners.

Maersk, along with most other major container lines, have said it will only return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so and an initial assessment of the ceasefire deal has done little to alter their current plans.

“It is still too early to speculate about timing,” a Maersk spokesperson confirmed.

Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad was similarly cautious about the prospect of any imminent re-routing, suggesting that it would be “a bit naive” to expect owners to put their seafarers at risk any time soon.

While shipping lines are said to be closely monitoring developments, any return to the Red Sea would trigger a phased series of re-routings that would likely take several weeks to prepare and another 1-2 months before normal schedules were operational. 

An industry-wide return to the Red Sea would spark weeks of port congestion and disruption to global supply chains.

Senior liner executives therefore remain reluctant to countenance any such switch until there are significantly stronger indications that security concerns are addressed.

The consensus view from naval officials operating in the Red Sea was that the ceasefire, which is due to come into effect on Sunday, has not altered the underlying threat of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping.

“For the moment [our] threat assessment remains unchanged,” said a spokesperson for the EU Naval Forces Operation Aspides.

Other senior naval officials operating in the region told Lloyd’s List that despite the recent lull in Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels, there was no actionable intelligence to suggest that the risk had diminished in any meaningful way.

Houthi militants have ostensibly justified their campaign as a defence of the Palestinian people and the rebel group has repeatedly threatened to continue these attacks until Israel ended its military campaign in Gaza that followed the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks.

However, security and diplomatic experts have long warned that the Houthi threat would continue even in the event of a ceasefire and the militant group would be reluctant to cede the political leverage they have gained over the past year.

On Thursday there were already early signs that the Houthi narrative was shifting away from a support of Gaza to a defence of Yemen as a justification for a continued campaign targeting vessels.

While a Houthi statement pledged to continue operations until “the aggression on Gaza stops”, they also stated that they would “confront and deter any aggression against Yemen”, suggesting that a wider political set of demands was now evolving.

Meanwhile, just hours before the ceasefire was announced, the UN Security Council was continuing to warn that governments needed to do more to halt Houthi attacks, suggesting that key governments had no faith in the ceasefire alleviating Red Sea risks.

One year after adopting a text demanding that the Houthis immediately cease all attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the Security Council on Wednesday evening reiterated that demand in a new resolution and called for ongoing monitoring of the situation as these attacks continue with increasing sophistication. The Council also repeated demands for the crew of Galaxy Leader (IMO: 9237307) to be released.

Speaking after the vote, the representative of the US stressed that, while the Houthis “have not heeded” the Council’s previous resolution on this matter, extending the reporting requirement — including “information on the weapons we all know Iran is supplying the Houthis” — would give the Council accurate, timely insights to guide its deliberations.

She added: “Attacks on any vessels in the Red Sea, regardless of origin or ownership, are entirely unacceptable; arguing otherwise risks legitimising clear violations of international law.”

Greece’s representative said: “Maritime security and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea is under extreme pressure. These attacks have a direct impact on us all.”

Maritime security is expected to further deteriorate, while the re-routing of shipping continues to favour safer, but costlier alternative routes. He therefore underlined the need to end the Houthis’ attacks “by looking into the origins of the use of advanced weapons and by preserving the applicability of the arms embargo”.