The year 2024 started with multiple events that significantly impacted containerised trade worldwide. Here's an overview and update of the current maritime shipping scene during the first quarter.

2024 Outlook: a bleak forecast in global headlines

Given the challenging premises and environment, 2024 was already regarded as an unfavourable year for container shipping.

Heightened geopolitical tensions between countries in the Middle East are likely to disrupt trade routes further and increase uncertainty. The situation has impacted both direct and indirect trade routes.

Furthermore, the longer travel times now needed from Asia to Europe have influenced the prices of consumer goods, leading to lower consumer sentiment and demand.

Other factors, such as the energy crisis, full warehouses and high inflation rates, are why many industry analysts draw a grim outlook for the shipping industry this year.

Red Sea crisis: diversions the new normal

After the Houthis escalated their attacks against commercial ships passing the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, most carriers adjusted their schedules to sail around Africa as an alternative to transiting the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards entered the picture on 13 April when they seized the containership MSC Aries as part of Iran's political conflict with Israel.

Nevertheless, MSC announced it would maintain its sailings in the area, and it is currently in negotiations to release both the crew and the cargo of the seized ship.

According to the latest information, all major carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea, with the exception of the French liner CMA CGM. The carrier had announced resuming sails through the Red Sea on a case-by-case basis.

The current ship diversions are expected to remain unchanged until the conflict in the region is resolved.

Panama Canal: slow recovery

Improved weather conditions in the Panama Canal called for an increase in the number of vessels allowed to transit through its locks.

Starting 7 May 2024, bookable transits will increase gradually to reach 32 ships by 15 July.

According to data released by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), 747 ships transited the Panama Canal in March, a significant improvement compared to February 2024.

However, despite a promising start in March, the number of transits through the neopanamax locks was 18%- 20% lower than in the same month in 2022 and 2023. Additionally, Panamax locks experienced a 36% decrease in transits.

This means that the recovery is still in its early stages.

Global on-time performance: year starts record low

The Red Sea crisis significantly impacted schedule reliability levels. The year started with a record-low rate of 47.1%, a percentage not seen since September 2022.

However, after two months of decline, overall on-time performance rebounded, mainly due to carrier service adjustments. The percentage increased by 5.2 percentage points month-on-month to 51.2% in March. 

Although the development is positive, March's performance remains considerably below 2023 levels.

Trades impacted by Red Sea diversions showed the strongest improvement. In particular, Asia<-> Mediterranean/Black Sea and Asia <-> North Europe recorded the highest percentage increases. 

Of the North American trades, the Transpacific on-time performance climbed to more than 55%, a 28% month-on-month improvement. 

Our latest seaexplorer Schedule Reliability report has more details about last month's on-time performance.

Baltimore: port closed, alternate channels open

The second event that stirred the waters of maritime shipping was the allision of boxship Dali into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.

While the impact on container shipping to and from the Port of Baltimore is limited, experts believe the regular traffic flow will take months to resolve.

Besides restoring the bridge's infrastructure, the legal battle could tie up lawyers and cargo interests for several years.

The latest information from the Key Bridge Response highlighted a new alternate channel titled the Fort Carroll. According to the authorities' statement, the channel is dedicated to commercially essential vessels and is estimated to facilitate "approximately 15 per cent of pre-collapse commercial activity."

However, the alternate channels established so far were described as "not deep enough" to accommodate most container vessels that usually call the Port of Baltimore.

In the meantime, carriers have announced the impact of the port's closure on some of their services in the area. Kuehne+Nagel provided an overview of the impact as part of carriers' contingency plans.