Shipping lines are approaching the 2026 Golden Week period with some of the highest scheduled capacity levels recorded across the major East-West trades, according to a Sea-Intelligence analysis of vessel deployment and blank sailings.
The study highlights a compressed holiday calendar, widespread congestion at Asian ports, vessel delays and the return of some Asia-Europe services to Suez Canal routings as key factors shaping current schedules.
Sea-Intelligence reports that scheduled capacity across the four-week Golden Week period is expected to reach 1.49 million TEU on the Asia-North America West Coast trade. This represents an increase of 18% compared with 2025 and is 31% above the average deployment recorded between 2017 and 2019.
Capacity deployment on this route in weeks 41 and 43 is currently projected to be the highest across the period analysed, while planned capacity reductions stand at 9.4% for the four-week period.
Meanwhile, Asia-North America East Coast services are also set for higher deployment levels. Scheduled capacity during the four-week period totals 935,200 TEU, up 17% year on year and 60% above the 2017-2019 average.
Planned capacity reductions amount to 9.1%, with deployment in three of the four weeks reaching the highest levels recorded in the study period.
Sea-Intelligence states that the offered capacity across the Transpacific market in weeks 40 and 41 is particularly strong. The report attributes this to vessel bunching caused by port congestion, which has created multiple double-sailings.
On the Asia-North America West Coast route alone, seven services are scheduled to operate double-sailings in week 40 and eleven in week 41.
Capacity levels are similarly elevated on Asia-Europe trades. Asia-North Europe is scheduled to receive 1.50 million TEU during the four-week Golden Week period, an increase of 27% compared with 2025 and 60% above the 2017-2019 average.
Planned capacity reductions currently stand at 3.7%, with no reductions scheduled during Golden Week or the following week.
The Asia-Mediterranean trade is forecast to receive 1.14 million TEU of capacity across the same period. This is 49% higher than in 2025 and 141% above the average deployment recorded between 2017 and 2019. Planned blank sailings currently account for 6.1% of capacity, with no reductions scheduled in weeks 40 and 41.
Across Asia-Europe services overall, twelve double-sailings are scheduled during those two weeks.
Carrier adjusts services ahead of Golden Week
Against this backdrop, some carriers have already announced service adjustments.
Maersk will suspend its standalone Transpacific TPX extra loader service after the departure of the Maersk Boston from Vung Tau on 29 September.
The service, which operates on a Busan-Long Beach-Vung Tau rotation, had originally been scheduled to continue until the end of November. According to available data, the suspension will reduce the carrier’s weekly capacity on the route by more than 10%.
MSC has also confirmed the cancellation of a week 41 sailing on its Asia-US East Coast Emerald service, citing “the anticipated slowdown in demand during and after the Golden Week holiday”.
Shippers advised to prepare
The Sea-Intelligence study concludes that the record capacity levels scheduled around Golden Week are primarily the result of operational disruption rather than carrier strategy.
As stated, the congestion at Asian ports has delayed vessels and created double-sailings, bringing previously delayed ships into the Golden Week period alongside regularly scheduled departures. Once the backlog of delayed vessels clears, capacity levels are expected to normalise.
However, if this coincides with lower post-holiday manufacturing output reaching export gateways, an oversupply situation could emerge.
For shippers, Sea-Intelligence advises that published schedules for mid-to-late October should be viewed as highly volatile.
The study states that, with limited time remaining before Golden Week, carriers have less scope to implement orderly blank sailings and could instead resort to unannounced last-minute capacity withdrawals if market conditions change rapidly.
As a result, shippers should prepare for schedule instability, short-notice voyage cancellations and increased cargo rolling during the latter half of October.
