by Lloyd's List
11 June 2025 (Lloyd's List) - REFRIGERATED container trade is on course to post successive years in volume growth for 2025, with only minimal impact expected from the US-China trade war on annual box numbers.
Following a slight dip in 2023, when nearly all major reefer-intensive trade routes reported a decline in volumes, containerised reefer cargo climbed 2.5% last year to just under 141m tonnes, according to figures published by Drewry.
The London-based analysts expect the development in reefer trade, which represents around 5% of total seaborne container volumes, to continue in this vein, rising by a compound annual growth rate of around 2% this year and at a similar level through to 2029.
Reefer traffic, like the dry cargo sector, has started the year strong. The latest figures for the cold supply chain published by Container Trades Statistics show that through to the end of April, reefer box growth was reported at nearly 7.2%. This included the sector’s busiest-ever month in March, when trade was close to 1.3m teu.
This, of course, comes amid the ongoing trade war and the uncertainties created by US tariff policy. For the reefer trade, the impact has been negligible.
Drewry’s head of ports and specialised shipping research Ferenc Pasztor explained on a webinar today that the major trading commodities entering the US via reefers are not subject to the highest tariffs. This includes bananas — predominately shipped from Central America and the Caribbean — and, to a lesser extent, exotic fruit, fish, vegetables from minor trades.
“Most of the countries where this produce comes from belong to the group with the lowest level of US import tariffs, [the] 10% category, so we do not expect a significant falling in consumption levels,” he said.
Similarly for US exports, Pasztor noted that with the country’s trade in seaborne reefers relatively small, the impact on global numbers would remain limited.
The majority of this trade, he explained, was a “story of a meat” — of which two-thirds goes to Asia and about half of that is exported to China.
“Even if this US-China trade completely vanishes, it should have a very small effect on global trade and, hence, demand for reefer boxes,” said Pasztor.
However, as Pasztor stressed, while the near to medium fortunes of the global reefer trade remained positive for now, any forecasts for this niche sector was always subject to review, given the volatile nature of the market.
“There are unpredictable, geopolitical and weather events that can significantly impact the yields of crops, which constitute the majority of reefer commodities,” he said.
In 2023, the arrival of El Niño affected fruit crops around the world, with unpredictable weather systems denting production. This led to an unprecedented 1.3% fall in reefer trade year on year.
