22 February 2023 (Lloyd's List) - THE huge containership orderbook that began to build from late 2020 is about to start emerging into the world fleet, just as demand falls back to pre-pandemic levels and carriers face lower load factors on their key trades.

Figures from Alphaliner show 89 vessels of 7,000 teu or above will enter service this year, with all major carriers adding to their fleets.

“This year will thus see the arrival of the boxship delivery wave that follows the ordering frenzy of 2020 and 2021,” Alphaliner said. “At least for the time being it looks as if all this extra tonnage will hit the liner trades at a time of faltering demand.”

Linerlytica said the pace of delivery of new vessels would pick up from March, particularly in the larger segments.

“A total of 32 ships of over 23,000 teu is due this year, with six units scheduled in March alone,” it said. “A further 67 neo-panamax units of 12,000-16,000 teu will also be delivered this year, of which 11 are scheduled in May.”

It also warned that the larger vessels would only be deployed on the Asia-Europe trade, where rates were coming under pressure.

Mediterranean Shipping Co, the most aggressive carrier in terms of ordering, would see the largest fleet increase, with 33 vessels of over 13,000 teu added to its existing fleet, Alphaliner said.

In contrast, 2M alliance partner Maersk would not receive any new large ships this year, with its 16,200 teu methanol-fuelled vessels not due until mid-2024.

Meanwhile, Cosco’s OOCL unit has already named the first of six 24,000 teu that will enter service from March this year, according to Linerlytica. “Ocean Network Express and Hapag-Lloyd are also scheduled to receive 12 ships of the same size this year, while MSC will take on 14 units.”

But it is not just newbuildings that will be adding to fleet growth this year, according to Alphaliner, which said “some carriers will not only expand their fleets with newbuildings, but also with modern secondhand tonnage that was strategically forward-fixed in 2022.”

Hapag-Lloyd and MSC had been the most active in this sector, Alphaliner added.

One effect of the arrival of newbuildings would be the arrival of a “literal armada” of ultra-large containerships entering the Asia-Europe trade.

“From mid-March to early April, MSC alone will phase no fewer than four 24,000 teu newbuildings into the Asia-Europe network of the 2M partnership,” it said. “Further to this, OOCL and Hapag-Lloyd have also decided already to which Asia-northern Europe loops the carriers will assign their upcoming megamax flagships.”

Nevertheless, the arrival of this new tonnage has not been met with a rise in demand.

“Filling these new giant ships could be a tough challenge for Maersk and MSC as both 2M partners are still blanking sailings due to weak bookings and a general slowdown in global cargo demand, which already prompted numerous voyage cancellations.”