The top three carrier alliances - 2M, Ocean Alliance, and THE Alliance - hold the majority of container capacity in the market. However, despite their large network and wide reach, they still have to face the challenges that come with weak demand. What is the case for carriers and shippers working outside the three main alliances, you may ask? An analysis by data and research provider Sea Intelligence concluded that non-alliance capacity is reducing. Analysts also expect it to drop further during the first three months of 2023. According to the research firm, the market share of non-alliance carriers was fluctuating before the pandemic, mainly because they were more likely to blank their sailings. The situation changed when demand was on the rise. More non-alliance services were offered at the time to the extent that their market share doubled when the market peaked, says Sea Intelligence. With demand taking a step back on major trade lanes, consequently causing freight rates to drop, analysts reported that non-alliance services are on the decline. They also believe this decline will continue into the first quarter of this year. “There is still more relative capacity operated by non-alliance services than before the pandemic, but if the rate of decline continues, this will revert back to pre-COVID levels before the end of 2023,” according to the analysis. Sea Intelligence data on regular sailings deployed before the pandemic show that services on the Asia-North America East Coast (NAEC) trade were covered by alliances exclusively. The report highlighted that non-alliance services on this route only appeared after the market strengthened. “There is a distinct decline coming into 2023, but there is no sign presently that we are about to go back to zero,” adds the report. On the Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trade lanes, non-alliance services grew significantly mid-2021, but not as extensively as they did on Asia-NAEC. While Sea Intelligence analysts forecast services outside alliances to decline further, they highlighted, services on Asia-Med “is the only one of the four trades where there, as of yet, are no signs of the non-alliance services reducing their market share again in 2023-Q1.”