by Lloyd's List
4 September (Lloyd's List) - TRANSITS through the Bab el Mandeb are up 9% month on month, the first meaningful increase in traffic since the Houthis began targeting merchant vessels in the Red Sea last November.
Some 850 vessels passed through the international waterway off Yemen’s coast 988 times in August. In July, these figures were 768 and 905 respectively.
Passing levels still remain nearly 60% lower than normal volumes.
It is difficult to pin down the exact reason for the recent uptick in traffic.
Changes in risk appetite are one possible factor.
“All shipowner companies are constantly evaluating the situation and they are updating their risk assessments,” said BIMCO head of maritime security Jakob Larsen.
“With more incidents there is more data and you can make more accurate assessments, therefore some companies may find that they are actually in a position to resume transits through the area.”
The increase in Bab el Mandeb transits as the crude oil tanker Sounion (IMO: 9312145) continues to burn in the Red Sea reinforces there is a faction within the shipping industry that remains undeterred by Houthi aggression and suggests that this group, and others, are becoming more accustomed to the situation.
“It’s probably that there is an element of risk normalisation that we are beginning to see kick in. Some shipowners see that others get away with continued transits and that might make them feel that they can do it too,” Larsen said.
Bulk carriers and containerships boost traffic volumes
Market factors naturally influence the movement of ships and it is possible that demand is impacting traffic levels.
General cargoships, bulk carriers and containerships were responsible for the increase in transits through the Bab el Mandeb in August.
More than 190 containership transits were recorded last month, the highest number since December.
Major container lines started withdrawing from Red Sea business in mid-December as Houthi attacks became increasingly indiscriminate.
The profile of containerships using the Red Sea has since evolved.
“We have seen niche carriers — often intra-Asian carriers (most of them Chinese) set up services that go through the area,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.
These services can run from the Middle East or Southeast Asia to the East Mediterranean or as far away at St. Petersburg.
Beside these new services, there has been a recent increase in containership calls to countries bordering the Red Sea, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s major Red Sea container port traffic has borne the brunt of lines rerouting south.
Foreign containership arrivals to Saudi Arabia totalled 215 in August, the highest level since December. However, they remain significantly lower than the numbers recorded in normal circumstances.
The bulk industry is highly susceptible to market ebbs and flows.
Some 350 bulk carriers passed through the Bab el Mandeb in August, up from 285 in July.
This may be linked to the seasonal increase in grains trade from the Black Sea region.
“Black Sea winter wheat crops are collected during the summer period and August to September normally feature an upturn in wheat shipments,” explains Alexander Karavaytsev, senior economist at International Grains Council.
Data provided by IGC shows a year-on-year increase in wheat shipments from Ukraine to Asia in July, a trend that is expected to have continued throughout August.
The situation for Russia is similar.
